TOP 10 Countries by Home Price Growth (2025)
Real (inflation-adjusted) house price growth is one of the clearest cross-country measures of residential market momentum. By stripping out consumer price inflation, it separates genuine property value increases from nominal gains that simply reflect the broader rise in prices. In 2025, global housing markets remain deeply divided: the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimates that global real house prices fell by roughly 1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while a select group of smaller and fast-growing economies posted real annual gains of 11–25%.
This ranking uses real year-on-year house price growth to Q1 2025, based on inflation-adjusted residential price indices for up to 45 economies. The data primarily draw on Global Property Guide's Q1 2025 Global Residential Market Report and are cross-checked against BIS Residential Property Price Statistics.
Values are rounded and harmonised for cross-country comparability. This ranking is for analytical purposes; it does not constitute investment advice or an official statistical release.
Top 10 housing markets with the fastest real price growth in 2025
The Top 10 is dominated by small open economies in Eastern Europe, island states, and fast-urbanising emerging markets. Most combine structural supply constraints with surging demand from diaspora buyers, foreign investment or strong income growth. They are outliers by global standards: the average country in the 45-economy sample saw real house prices rise by barely 1.2% over the same period.
Moldova leads the global ranking with the fastest real home price appreciation. The surge reflects post-pandemic catch-up after years of chronic underinvestment, strong remittance inflows from a large diaspora in Western Europe, and near-zero new housing supply in Chișinău. European Commission analysis has flagged double-digit real price growth in Moldova as a potential overheating signal, particularly given that household incomes have not risen at comparable speed.
Mauritius has become a magnet for global capital. Residence-by-investment schemes, robust private-banking activity and demand from African and European HNW buyers have pushed real prices above 20% growth in a single year. High-end resort and lifestyle segments lead the move, but mainstream residential housing in Port Louis and coastal areas has been pulled along by the same demand wave. The economy's relatively low inflation (around 4–5%) amplifies real gains.
Puerto Rico's real residential prices are up more than 20%, combining two separate drivers: continued recovery from hurricane-related infrastructure shocks and a sustained inflow of high-income mainland US residents attracted by Act 22/60 tax incentives. Access to the US dollar financial system, dollar-denominated mortgages and the Federal Reserve rate cycle tie the island's market closely to continental US conditions — even as the pace of price gains far exceeds the US mainland.
Montenegro's coastal and capital real estate markets have attracted consistent foreign demand, particularly from Russian, British, Ukrainian and Turkish buyers. The country uses the euro without being in the eurozone, providing monetary stability. Urban supply is tight and permitting is slow, creating an enduring structural imbalance. European policy reports note that house prices in several Western Balkan candidates are rising faster than borrowing capacity.
North Macedonia rounds out the top 5 with real growth close to 18%. The Skopje market has seen exceptional demand from diaspora buyers and domestic upgraders whose incomes have grown via remittances and expanding business services. Mortgage penetration is still low relative to EU peers, meaning most purchases are cash-driven — which insulates the market from interest rate movements but concentrates gains among wealthier households.
Pakistan ranks sixth despite a challenging macro backdrop. Real-asset demand is a classic hedge in high-uncertainty environments, and land in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad continues to attract investment from households seeking inflation protection and from overseas Pakistanis channelling remittances. Official regulatory reform programmes have tried to ease approval bottlenecks, but urban land constraints remain the dominant binding factor.
Vietnam's real house prices are rising nearly 15% annually, driven by rapid urbanisation, strong GDP growth linked to manufacturing relocation from China, and a growing middle class demanding modern apartment stock. A series of regulatory shocks and bond-market disruptions since 2022 have slowed new project delivery, compressing supply just as demand remains firm — a classic recipe for price appreciation.
The UAE — and Dubai in particular — has been one of the most consistently high-performing prime residential markets globally since 2021. Geopolitical repositioning, a wave of relocations by high-net-worth individuals, golden-visa programmes and sustained demand for both prime and mid-market units underpin strong real price gains. With UAE consumer inflation running around 2–3%, even strong nominal gains translate almost fully into real appreciation.
After a brief cooling in 2022–2023 driven by higher ECB rates, Portugal's housing market re-accelerated. Tourism income, digital-nomad inflows, resilient domestic demand and limited construction in Lisbon and Porto continue to underpin prices. The Bank of Portugal and the ECB have both flagged renewed overvaluation concerns. Portugal is the only major Western European economy in the Top 10.
Mongolia illustrates the frontier-market housing dynamic: a small urban market centred on Ulaanbaatar, commodity-linked income cycles, rising demand for modern apartments, and very limited high-quality supply. Strong copper and coal revenues in 2024 lifted household incomes and government spending, feeding into residential demand at a pace that the construction sector has not matched.
Table 1. Top 10 economies by real house price growth, Q1 2025 (YoY)
| Rank | Economy | Real growth (YoY, %) | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moldova | +24.5% | Eastern Europe |
| 2 | Mauritius | +21.6% | Indian Ocean |
| 3 | Puerto Rico (US) | +20.4% | Caribbean / Americas |
| 4 | Montenegro | +19.8% | Western Balkans |
| 5 | North Macedonia | +18.1% | Western Balkans |
| 6 | Pakistan | +17.2% | South Asia |
| 7 | Vietnam | +14.8% | Southeast Asia |
| 8 | United Arab Emirates | +13.4% | MENA |
| 9 | Portugal | +11.3% | Southern Europe |
| 10 | Mongolia | +11.1% | East Asia |
Real growth = nominal house price index change minus consumer price inflation, year-on-year to Q1 2025. Source: Global Property Guide, BIS. Rounded to one decimal place.
Chart 1. Real house price growth — Top 20 markets vs. global trend (Q1 2025, YoY)
Blue bars = real (inflation-adjusted) YoY growth to Q1 2025. Red dashed line = BIS global average (approx. −1% real YoY). Markets to the right of rank 10 represent the second tier of fastest-growing economies. Values are indicative.
Full ranking: 45 economies by real house price growth, Q1 2025
The full table reveals a global housing market divided into three zones. The top tier (roughly ranks 1–10) shows real gains above 11%, all driven by idiosyncratic structural factors — supply constraints, diaspora demand, commodity windfalls or tax incentives. A broad middle tier (ranks 11–30) shows moderate real growth between 2% and 10%, mostly across Southern and Eastern Europe, some emerging Asia and select Latin American markets. The bottom of the table, from rank 31 onward, includes advanced economies experiencing flat or negative real price dynamics as higher rates and affordability pressure weigh on transaction volumes.
Table 2. 45 economies by real house price growth (Q1 2025, YoY)
Real growth = nominal house price index annual change minus headline CPI (12-month), to Q1 2025. Sources: Global Property Guide Q1 2025, BIS Residential Property Price Statistics, OECD Housing Indicators. Figures are rounded to one decimal place.
| Rank | Economy | Real growth (YoY, %) | Region | Nominal growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moldova | +24.5% | Eastern Europe | +32.1% |
| 2 | Mauritius | +21.6% | Africa / Indian Ocean | +25.9% |
| 3 | Puerto Rico (US) | +20.4% | Americas | +23.0% |
| 4 | Montenegro | +19.8% | Europe | +22.5% |
| 5 | North Macedonia | +18.1% | Europe | +21.2% |
| 6 | Pakistan | +17.2% | Asia / Pacific | +34.1% |
| 7 | Vietnam | +14.8% | Asia / Pacific | +18.5% |
| 8 | United Arab Emirates | +13.4% | MENA | +15.8% |
| 9 | Portugal | +11.3% | Europe | +13.6% |
| 10 | Mongolia | +11.1% | Asia / Pacific | +16.8% |
| 11 | Romania | +9.8% | Europe | +14.5% |
| 12 | Spain | +9.2% | Europe | +11.5% |
| 13 | Philippines | +8.6% | Asia / Pacific | +12.1% |
| 14 | Netherlands | +8.4% | Europe | +10.7% |
| 15 | Mexico | +7.9% | Americas | +11.6% |
| 16 | Croatia | +7.4% | Europe | +9.8% |
| 17 | Bulgaria | +7.1% | Europe | +9.4% |
| 18 | Ireland | +6.8% | Europe | +8.6% |
| 19 | India | +6.5% | Asia / Pacific | +10.8% |
| 20 | Poland | +6.2% | Europe | +8.9% |
| 21 | Serbia | +5.9% | Europe | +9.1% |
| 22 | Hungary | +5.7% | Europe | +8.6% |
| 23 | Greece | +5.4% | Europe | +7.3% |
| 24 | Australia | +5.1% | Asia / Pacific | +7.6% |
| 25 | Canada | +4.8% | Americas | +6.9% |
| 26 | United States | +4.5% | Americas | +7.1% |
| 27 | Singapore | +4.2% | Asia / Pacific | +5.7% |
| 28 | Japan | +3.8% | Asia / Pacific | +6.2% |
| 29 | United Kingdom | +3.5% | Europe | +5.9% |
| 30 | Switzerland | +3.2% | Europe | +4.3% |
| 31 | France | +2.8% | Europe | +4.6% |
| 32 | Brazil | +1.2% | Americas | +6.4% |
| 33 | South Korea | +1.4% | Asia / Pacific | +3.3% |
| 34 | Israel | +2.1% | MENA | +4.7% |
| 35 | New Zealand | +1.8% | Asia / Pacific | +3.7% |
| 36 | Denmark | +0.9% | Europe | +2.6% |
| 37 | Sweden | +0.4% | Europe | +2.0% |
| 38 | Finland | −0.2% | Europe | +1.4% |
| 39 | Austria | −0.5% | Europe | +1.6% |
| 40 | Turkey | −3.4% | MENA | +38.2% |
| 41 | Germany | −1.2% | Europe | +0.9% |
| 42 | South Africa | −2.1% | Africa / Indian Ocean | +1.5% |
| 43 | Luxembourg | −3.8% | Europe | −1.5% |
| 44 | China | −4.5% | Asia / Pacific | −4.1% |
| 45 | Hong Kong SAR | −5.8% | Asia / Pacific | −5.4% |
Source: Global Property Guide Q1 2025, BIS RPPS, OECD Housing Indicators. Last updated: Q1 2025. Real growth = nominal index change − headline CPI (YoY). Values rounded to 1 decimal place.
Figure 2. Real house price growth vs. GDP per capita (PPP) — 45 economies, Q1 2025
The scatter plot below maps each economy's real house price growth (vertical axis) against its GDP per capita in PPP terms (horizontal axis). There is a weak negative correlation overall: the highest-growth markets tend to be lower or middle-income economies where urbanisation, supply bottlenecks and catch-up dynamics dominate. Several high-income economies (Germany, Luxembourg, Hong Kong) show negative real growth, while some advanced economies (Netherlands, Spain, Australia) post moderate positive growth supported by structural housing shortages.
Horizontal axis: GDP per capita, PPP (thousand 2021 international dollars). Sources: World Bank WDI, Global Property Guide. Vertical axis: real YoY house price growth (%), Q1 2025. Each dot is one economy.
What the 2025 real house price ranking tells us about global residential markets
The 2025 ranking suggests a global housing market moving on at least three different tracks at once. Looking at each track separately is more useful than relying on a single headline figure.
Analytical insights: the three-speed global housing market
Track 1 — The outlier sprint (real growth above 10%)
Nine of the top ten markets share a structural feature: a severe mismatch between demand and supply in primary urban centres. Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia all have capital cities where formal construction permitting is slow, land is legally fragmented and skilled labour has emigrated — conditions that can produce persistent price pressure regardless of the interest rate cycle.
In island and resort economies (Mauritius, UAE), the supply constraint is geographic and deliberate: premium land is scarce and zoning preserves scarcity. Puerto Rico adds a fiscal dimension — Act 60 tax incentives structurally import high-income buyers whose demand is insensitive to local wages.
For Pakistan and Vietnam, the driver is more cyclical: rapid urbanisation at a stage of development where city infrastructure spending and industrial relocation generate income faster than housing can be built. These markets can reverse quickly if macro conditions deteriorate.
Track 2 — The broad middle (real growth 2–10%)
This is the most policy-relevant group and includes major Western European markets (Spain, Netherlands, UK, France), North America and most of developed Asia-Pacific. Prices are rising in real terms, but at rates that are broadly consistent with income growth and falling inflation. The key risk here is not overheating but affordability erosion at the margin: even 5% real growth compounded over five years produces a 28% real increase in house prices, which stretches household debt serviceability and pushes younger cohorts further from ownership.
Central and Eastern European economies (Romania, Poland, Croatia, Hungary) have delivered faster real gains than their Western neighbours for a decade. As these markets converge toward Western income levels, the pace of real price growth may moderate — but not before they test the institutional capacity of local mortgage markets and prudential frameworks.
Track 3 — The correction zone (real growth below 0%)
Germany, Luxembourg, China, Hong Kong and Turkey all saw real house prices fall over the year to Q1 2025. The mechanisms differ sharply. In Germany and Luxembourg, a sharp rise in mortgage rates from 2022 collided with overvalued markets and very limited affordability headroom; the result was a volume collapse and a gradual price correction. In China and Hong Kong, the driving force is a combination of demographics (China's working-age population peaked around 2015), a developer debt crisis and capital outflows. In Turkey, the paradox of the ranking is stark: nominal house prices rose above 38% YoY in 2025, but consumer price inflation at around 42% meant that in real terms buyers lost ground — an extreme illustration of why the nominal/real distinction is not just academic.
Across all three tracks, a common theme emerges: the interest rate cycle has been less powerful than expected in driving house price corrections in supply-constrained markets. Many economists expected a synchronised global housing correction in 2022–2024 after the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. That correction happened in some markets (Germany, Canada temporarily, New Zealand in 2023) but was absent or brief in many others. The reason is supply: in markets where new building was already structurally insufficient before rates rose, higher borrowing costs reduce transaction volumes more than prices — creating a "frozen" market rather than a falling one.
Methodology: how this ranking is constructed
Comparing house prices across countries requires careful handling of measurement, coverage and inflation differences. Below is a full account of the choices made in this ranking.
| Dimension | Choice made | Rationale / limitations |
|---|---|---|
| Core metric | Real (inflation-adjusted) year-on-year change in residential property price index | Removes CPI distortion; allows cross-country comparison of purchasing-power-adjusted momentum |
| Reference period | Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 (latest available for most economies) | Some frontier markets have data lags of one to two quarters; where Q1 2025 is unavailable, the nearest quarter is used |
| Price index type | Nationwide residential price index (all dwelling types, mainstream segment) | Prime and luxury sub-indices are excluded; city-level data is used only where no national index exists |
| Inflation deflator | Headline consumer price index (CPI), 12-month change, same period | CPI is imperfect but widely available and consistent; core CPI or PPI alternatives would change rankings at the margin |
| Currency | Local currency throughout; no FX conversion | Avoids introducing exchange-rate volatility; purchasing power in local markets is the relevant measure for residents |
| Primary source | Global Property Guide Q1 2025 Global Residential Market Report (79-country dataset) | Private-sector compilation; methodology harmonises national indices but coverage quality varies across markets |
| Cross-checks | BIS Residential Property Price Statistics; OECD Housing Price Indicators | BIS series are weighted by housing stock and more conservative; significant divergence between sources is flagged in the text |
| Coverage | 45 economies selected for data quality and comparability | Many low-income countries lack reliable residential price indices; their absence is a data limitation, not an editorial choice |
| Rounding | All figures rounded to one decimal place | Analytical estimates; not suitable for formal statistical or legal purposes |
Key limitations to keep in mind: First, national averages mask major city-level disparities — Lisbon and Porto drive Portugal's figure, while rural areas lag far behind. Second, transaction volume data (which fell sharply in many markets in 2023–2024) is not included; markets with very few transactions can produce volatile price indices. Third, PPP adjustments are not applied to the price growth figures themselves; the growth rate is in local currency terms, which is the most meaningful measure for residents.
What this ranking means for you — context and interpretation
A house price growth ranking is not a list of recommended investment destinations. It is a map of momentum — and momentum can be driven by fundamentals, by temporary forces, or by speculative excess. Here is how to interpret the numbers for different audiences:
- For homebuyers and first-time buyers: A market in the Top 10 is almost certainly becoming less affordable in real terms. Fast real price growth that is not matched by wage growth compresses the pool of eligible buyers and raises required down-payments. The most relevant question is not "is the market rising?" but "is the price-to-income ratio still within reach for the median household?"
- For residential property investors: The presence of strong real price growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for attractive returns. Transaction costs, rental yield compression, currency risk (for cross-border buyers), and liquidity (can you exit quickly?) all feed into total returns alongside capital appreciation. Markets like Moldova or Pakistan show spectacular headline figures but carry institutional, legal and liquidity risks that are largely invisible in the price index.
- For macroeconomists and policymakers: Markets recording real growth above 8–10% for two or more consecutive years typically begin to show signs of overvaluation by standard metrics (price-to-income, price-to-rent). This is where macroprudential tools — tighter LTV caps, higher capital requirements on mortgage books, buyer taxes — tend to become relevant. The ECB, BIS and several national central banks are currently flagging renewed overvaluation concerns in parts of Southern and Central Europe.
- For long-term structural context: The ranking shows that global house prices are not driven by a single global cycle. Markets diverge according to demographics, supply conditions, institutional quality and capital openness. The countries declining in real terms (Germany, China, Hong Kong) are among the world's largest economies — their correction matters for global financial stability even if the headline figures are less dramatic than the top-10 risers.
FAQ: frequently asked questions about house price indices
What's the difference between nominal and real house price growth?
Nominal growth is the raw percentage change in house prices as measured in local currency — the number you usually see in newspaper headlines. Real growth adjusts for consumer price inflation over the same period by subtracting the CPI rate. If house prices rose 10% but inflation was 8%, real growth was only about 2%. In high-inflation environments like Turkey or Pakistan, nominal gains can be enormous while real gains — which determine actual purchasing power — are much smaller or even negative. For cross-country comparisons, real growth is almost always the more informative figure.
Why do some countries show positive nominal growth but negative real growth?
This happens when consumer price inflation outpaces house price appreciation. Turkey is the clearest example in this ranking: nominal house prices rose about 38% YoY in Q1 2025, but consumer inflation was running above 40–42%, leaving real house prices slightly negative. In Germany and Luxembourg, even the nominal change was slightly negative because the post-2022 rate shock hit a market where buyers could no longer service mortgages at previous price levels.
Does a top-10 ranking mean a country is a good place to invest in property?
Not necessarily. High real price growth signals strong demand relative to supply, but it also means you are buying in at elevated and rising prices. Returns to real estate investors depend on rental yields (which often compress as prices rise), financing costs, transaction taxes, currency risk, property rights security and exit liquidity. Some top-10 markets in this ranking (Moldova, Pakistan) carry significant institutional and legal risk for foreign investors. Others (UAE, Portugal) have well-developed investor frameworks but already high entry prices and compressed yields in prime locations.
Why isn't my country in the table?
The ranking covers 45 economies for which sufficiently comparable, regularly updated residential property price indices exist. Many countries — particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and parts of the Middle East — lack official or sufficiently reliable national house price series. Some smaller economies (Pacific islands, much of francophone Africa) are also absent from the Global Property Guide and BIS datasets that underpin this ranking. This is a data availability limitation, not an editorial decision about importance.
How often do global house price rankings change significantly?
Rankings can shift substantially from quarter to quarter, especially for smaller markets where a single policy change (new foreign-buyer tax, interest rate move, visa programme) or commodity price swing can cause price indices to jump or fall. The Top 10 in Q1 2024 looked meaningfully different from Q1 2025. Large economies (US, Germany, Japan, China) tend to be more stable in their relative ranking because the sheer volume of transactions smooths out idiosyncratic volatility. As a rule, this ranking should be refreshed at least twice a year for investment or policy purposes.
Why does Hong Kong keep appearing near the bottom of housing rankings?
Hong Kong entered a prolonged real price correction driven by several converging forces: capital outflows linked to geopolitical uncertainty and the National Security Law from 2020; elevated mortgage rates that track US Federal Reserve decisions (the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the USD); a structural shift in high-income population as professional emigration reduced demand; and significant new luxury supply coming to market. The BIS and OECD data confirm this correction has been one of the most significant among advanced city economies since 2021.
What drives Moldova to the top? Is that sustainable?
Moldova's real house price growth is underpinned by structural factors rather than a speculative bubble in the traditional sense. The housing stock in Chișinău is old and physically inadequate, permitting is bureaucratic, and construction costs have risen sharply since 2022. Against that supply backdrop, remittance flows from the Moldovan diaspora in Western and Southern Europe — which represents a large share of GDP — have funded cash purchases of apartments, bypassing any mortgage market constraints. Whether this is sustainable depends on remittance flows (tied to the European labour market) and whether new construction accelerates. European Commission observers have flagged the pace of growth as a macroprudential concern, though mortgage debt levels remain low by EU standards.
Primary data sources and technical references
The figures in this article are compiled from the sources below. They are harmonised and lightly rounded for analytical comparability and should not be cited as official national statistics.
All numerical values are approximate and rounded for clarity. For formal statistical, legal, or investment work, use the original databases and their methodological documentation. Last data update: Q1 2025.
