Top Countries with the Largest Food CPI Overheating in 2025
Where food prices are rising faster than the broader CPI basket
This ranking compares year-over-year food consumer price inflation with headline consumer price inflation for the same month. A positive gap means food prices increased faster than the full household CPI basket.
The latest common period available across the selected FAOSTAT Consumer Price Indices files is September 2025 compared with September 2024. The table covers the 20 largest positive gaps among 129 economies with complete data for the required CPI series.
Ranking formula
Food inflation gap = food CPI inflation − headline CPI inflationHeadline CPI already includes food together with housing, transport, energy and other household expenses. The gap therefore shows how far food inflation is running above or below the complete CPI basket, not above non-food inflation alone.
Food inflation was 41.17%, compared with headline inflation of 17.67%.
Half of the listed gaps are above this value and half are below it.
Economies with the required food and headline CPI data for the common comparison period.
Year-over-year change measured against September 2024.
What this food CPI ranking measures
Food inflation alone does not show whether food prices are moving unusually quickly compared with the rest of an economy. The gap adds that comparison by placing the food rate beside headline inflation for the same 12-month period.
An economy with food inflation of 10% and headline inflation of 4% has a gap of +6 percentage points. Another economy with food inflation of 20% and headline inflation of 25% has a gap of −5 percentage points, despite having the faster increase in food prices.
The ranking is therefore a relative measure. It helps identify places where food-price pressure is stronger than the average movement of the domestic consumer basket.
Top 20 economies by food inflation gap
Values are ranked from highest to lowest. The two CPI rates are shown in the final column so that similar gaps can be compared with their underlying inflation levels.
Food CPI inflation minus headline CPI inflation, September 2025 year over year
| Rank | Economy | Gap | Food / headline CPI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Bank and Gaza | +23.50 pp | Food 41.17% · headline 17.67% |
| 2 | Zimbabwe | +16.75 pp | Food 41.86% · headline 25.12% |
| 3 | Iran | +15.07 pp | Food 60.37% · headline 45.30% |
| 4 | Bolivia | +12.85 pp | Food 36.17% · headline 23.32% |
| 5 | Lebanon | +8.84 pp | Food 23.90% · headline 15.06% |
| 6 | Georgia | +7.04 pp | Food 11.86% · headline 4.82% |
| 7 | Benin | +5.56 pp | Food 7.80% · headline 2.24% |
| 8 | Ukraine | +5.55 pp | Food 17.42% · headline 11.88% |
| 9 | Paraguay | +5.48 pp | Food 9.75% · headline 4.27% |
| 10 | Malawi | +4.33 pp | Food 33.02% · headline 28.69% |
| 11 | Slovenia | +4.31 pp | Food 6.95% · headline 2.63% |
| 12 | Japan | +3.86 pp | Food 6.71% · headline 2.85% |
| 13 | Tanzania | +3.61 pp | Food 7.04% · headline 3.43% |
| 14 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | +3.56 pp | Food 7.75% · headline 4.19% |
| 15 | Haiti | +3.19 pp | Food 35.10% · headline 31.91% |
| 16 | Denmark | +3.04 pp | Food 5.31% · headline 2.27% |
| 17 | Belarus | +2.87 pp | Food 10.01% · headline 7.15% |
| 18 | Türkiye | +2.77 pp | Food 36.06% · headline 33.29% |
| 19 | Latvia | +2.70 pp | Food 6.78% · headline 4.08% |
| 20 | Norway | +2.69 pp | Food 6.28% · headline 3.59% |
All rows use the same September 2025 versus September 2024 period. Ranks are based on unrounded values; displayed gaps are rounded to two decimals.
The distribution of the Top 20 gaps
The bars make the separation at the top easier to see. Four values exceed 12 percentage points, followed by a broader group ranging from 8.84 to 2.69 points.
Methodology, sources and limitations
Metric and direction
The ranking sorts the difference between food inflation and headline inflation from highest to lowest. A larger positive value receives a higher rank.
Reference period
All entries compare September 2025 with September 2024. The article is a 2026 snapshot of the latest common month, not a forecast for 2026.
Data coverage
The calculation required food inflation plus general and food CPI indices for both comparison months. After removing aggregates and records outside the chosen geographic scope, 129 economies remained.
Regional grouping
The filters and regional totals follow the current World Bank regional classification. Iran is included in Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
All numeric inputs come from one source family: FAOSTAT Consumer Price Indices. Headline inflation was calculated from the general CPI index:
Headline inflation = ((general CPI Sep 2025 ÷ general CPI Sep 2024) − 1) × 100The ranking value was then calculated as:
Food inflation gap = food inflation Sep 2025 − headline inflation Sep 2025FAOSTAT notes that missing monthly observations may be completed through statistical estimation. The available international series can therefore include both reported and estimated observations.
Limits of the metric
The gap does not measure absolute food prices, household income, purchasing power, food affordability, poverty, hunger, shortages or the cost of an identical basket across economies. It does not show the contribution of food to total inflation and should not be read as food inflation versus non-food inflation because food is already included in headline CPI.
National CPI systems also differ in basket composition, expenditure weights, geographic coverage, price collection and revision schedules. A single year-over-year month can be affected by seasonality, base effects and the timing of temporary price shocks. Small differences in rank should therefore be interpreted cautiously.
Why food inflation gaps differ
The size of the gap depends on how food prices move relative to all other categories in the consumer basket. Several mechanisms can widen or narrow that difference.
Headline inflation affects the result
Two economies can have similar food inflation but different gaps if housing, transport, energy or services prices are moving at different rates.
Food weights vary
National CPI baskets assign different expenditure weights to food. This changes how strongly food-price movements influence the headline rate.
Food-specific shocks
Harvest conditions, transport costs, import prices and supply disruptions can affect food more strongly than other parts of the basket.
Timing and base effects
Taxes, regulated prices, exchange-rate movements and earlier price spikes can enter food and headline inflation at different times.
Key patterns in the ranking
A steep upper tier
Four entries exceed 12 percentage points, while all remaining values are below nine points.
Regional distribution
Europe and Central Asia contributes 9 entries, Sub-Saharan Africa 4, Latin America and the Caribbean 3, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan 3, and East Asia and Pacific 1.
Similar gaps, different inflation levels
Benin and Ukraine have almost identical gaps, but their food and headline inflation rates differ substantially.
Close ranks should be read carefully
Several entries differ by only a few hundredths of a percentage point, making their practical positions nearly equivalent after rounding.
How to read the results
A high positive gap signals that food prices are rising faster than the average price movement across the full consumer basket. It is most useful for identifying unusual divergence between food and headline inflation.
The two underlying rates matter as much as the final gap. A five-point difference during generally low inflation is not the same household environment as a five-point difference when both food and headline inflation exceed 25%.
The ranking can guide further research into national food markets, consumer budgets and price pressures, but explanations for individual economies require national statistics and sector-specific evidence.
Frequently asked questions
Is the food inflation gap an FAO indicator?
No. FAOSTAT provides the CPI inputs, while the percentage-point difference is calculated for this ranking using the formula shown in the methodology.
Does headline CPI include food?
Yes. Headline CPI covers food and other household expenses. The ranking compares food inflation with the entire consumer basket.
Why can lower food inflation receive a higher rank?
The rank depends on the difference from headline inflation. A lower food rate can produce a larger gap when the headline rate is much lower.
Are these 2026 inflation figures?
No. The page is a 2026 snapshot based on September 2025 data compared with September 2024.
Can the ranking change from one month to the next?
Yes. Food prices, other CPI categories and year-over-year base effects can change at different speeds, causing gaps and ranks to move.
Does a large gap prove that an economy has a food crisis?
No. Food availability, affordability, income, poverty and emergency conditions require separate indicators.
Sources
FAOSTAT Consumer Price Indices data
Monthly general CPI, food CPI and food inflation values used in the calculations.
FAO CPI methodology
Coverage, processing methods and treatment of missing observations in the CPI series.
World Bank regional classification
Regional groupings used in the table filter and regional summary.
