Global Fertility Rates: Why Are Birth Rates Declining?
Global Fertility Decline: Key Trends and Drivers Behind Falling Birth Rates
There is no single global cause of declining fertility. Across countries, lower fertility is associated with later parenthood, housing and child-related costs, economic uncertainty, difficulties combining paid work with care, changing family preferences and greater reproductive choice. The importance of each factor varies by country. UN DESA estimates that the global total fertility rate was about 2.25 live births per woman in 2024, down from 3.31 in 1990.
This article uses total fertility rate, or TFR, as its main measure. TFR estimates how many children a woman would have if the age-specific fertility rates observed in a given year applied throughout her childbearing years. It is different from the crude birth rate, which measures annual live births per 1,000 people and is strongly affected by population age structure.
The reference ranking uses one source throughout: World Bank World Development Indicators, indicator SP.DYN.TFRT.IN. It covers 14 sovereign states with a published 2024 WDI TFR at or below 1.20 births per woman. Lower TFR ranks higher. Status counts: 14 official_value, 0 calculated_value, 0 official_forecast and 0 modeled_projection. Data were checked on September 11, 2026.
UN DESA estimate for 2024, compared with 3.31 births per woman in 1990.
Korea, Rep. has the lowest published 2024 WDI value among the included sovereign states.
Estonia and Italy have the highest published value inside this ≤1.20 reference group.
Sovereign states meeting the published World Bank WDI 2024 threshold used on this page.
Ascending: lower total fertility rate receives the higher ranking position.
One numeric source; data checked September 11, 2026.
Why global fertility is declining
Fertility decline has different causes in different societies. Evidence from OECD countries highlights later childbearing, housing costs, labour-market uncertainty, childcare availability, parental leave and the division of paid work and unpaid care. In other regions, reproductive health access, family norms, partnership patterns and economic conditions can play different roles.
Later parenthood
Delaying childbearing can temporarily lower period TFR because births are shifted to older ages, even when completed family size does not fall by the same amount. A later first birth can also leave less time for subsequent births. In the EU, the mean age at first birth increased from 28.9 years in 2014 to 29.9 years in 2024.
Housing and family costs
OECD analysis finds a negative association between housing costs and fertility. Housing space, childcare and other child-related expenses can make family formation more difficult when household budgets are already constrained.
Economic uncertainty
Weak labour-market conditions can delay family formation. OECD evidence identifies a negative association between unemployment and TFR, while financial insecurity can make long-term family commitments harder to plan.
Work and care responsibilities
Employment itself does not necessarily reduce fertility. OECD research shows that childcare, parental leave and a more balanced division of care can make employment and parenthood easier to combine.
Changing family preferences
Across OECD countries, changing attitudes toward parenthood and greater acceptance of childlessness are among the factors associated with fertility change. Desired family size and the timing of parenthood can also shift as life-course preferences change.
Wanted children versus actual outcomes
Low fertility does not always mean that people want fewer children. UNFPA's 2025 research included a survey across 14 countries in which respondents reported barriers such as financial pressure, housing, job insecurity, lack of a suitable partner and concern about the future.
Greater reproductive choice and barriers to family formation can exist at the same time. Some fertility decline reflects people choosing smaller families, while some reflects people having fewer children than they would prefer because economic or personal conditions make those plans difficult to realize.
Global context: fertility is falling at different speeds
UN DESA reports that more than half of countries and areas are below the approximate replacement benchmark of 2.1 births per woman in low-mortality populations without migration. Fertility remains substantially higher in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and several other regions, so the global average does not describe every national trajectory.
A lower TFR does not automatically mean that a country's total population is already declining. Population change also depends on mortality, migration and age structure. Annual births can also fall while TFR changes relatively little if smaller generations are entering reproductive ages.
For a broader country and economy TFR comparison, use StatRanker's dedicated fertility ranking. For annual births relative to total population, use the separate crude birth rate ranking.
Low-fertility snapshot: 10 lowest verified values
These values provide context for how far the lowest national fertility levels sit below the global figure. Countries are ordered using the published numeric World Bank WDI observations rather than one-decimal display labels.
10 lowest published 2024 TFR entries in the selected sovereign-state dataset
| Rank | Entity | TFR | Region / note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Korea, Rep. | 0.748 | East Asia & Pacific; World Bank WDI; 2024; official published value. |
| 2 | Singapore | 0.97 | East Asia & Pacific; World Bank WDI; 2024; official published value. |
| 3 | Ukraine | 0.988 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; 2024; official published value. |
| 4 | Malta | 1.01 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; 2024; official published value. |
| 5 | China | 1.013 | East Asia & Pacific; World Bank WDI; 2024; official published value. |
| 6 | Andorra | 1.087 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; 2024; official published value. |
| 7 | Spain | 1.10 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; 2024; official published value. |
| 8 | Lithuania | 1.11 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; 2024; official published value. |
| 9 | Chile | 1.14 | Latin America & Caribbean; World Bank WDI; 2024; same published value as Poland. |
| 9 | Poland | 1.14 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; 2024; same published value as Chile. |
Equal published values share the same rank. Competition ranking is used, so the rank after a two-way tie advances by two positions. Alphabetical order is used only to display countries that share the same published value.
Chart: 14 confirmed entries at or below 1.20 TFR
The chart uses the same published numeric values as the ranking table. Bar length represents TFR, with 1.18, the highest value in this selected group, used as the chart maximum.
Methodology
The ranking uses World Bank WDI indicator SP.DYN.TFRT.IN, total fertility rate in births per woman. All included observations have target year 2024. The numeric table uses World Bank WDI throughout; UN DESA, OECD, UNFPA and Eurostat are used for definitions, cross-checks and explanatory context.
Metric
TFR estimates the number of children a woman would have if the age-specific fertility rates observed in the reference year applied throughout her childbearing years.
Unit and direction
Unit: births per woman. Direction: ascending. Lower TFR receives the higher position in this low-fertility comparison.
Coverage
Sovereign states are included when their published 2024 World Bank WDI numeric value is at or below 1.20. Fourteen states meet this rule.
Published precision
Ranking and inclusion use the numeric values published in WDI rather than one-decimal labels shown on some interfaces. Display precision follows the available published observation and does not imply greater precision than the source provides.
Equal published values
Equal published values receive equal ranks. Chile and Poland both rank 9 with a TFR of 1.14. Estonia and Italy both rank 13 with a TFR of 1.18. Competition ranking is used, so the next position after a tie skips the corresponding number of places.
Cutoff boundary
Countries above 1.20 are excluded even if a one-decimal interface rounds them to 1.2. Examples include Thailand at 1.204, the United Arab Emirates at 1.213 and Belarus at 1.217.
Data status
All 14 ranking values are directly published by the World Bank. No country value is calculated from another indicator and no 2026 fertility value is projected.
Limits
TFR does not directly measure total births, crude birth rate, desired family size, infertility, migration, population growth or completed lifetime family size.
World Bank metadata identify UN World Population Prospects, national statistical offices and Eurostat among the sources underlying the fertility series. Depending on country data availability, internationally comparable demographic series may combine observed statistical data with standardized estimation methods.
The 1.20 cutoff is used only to create a compact low-fertility reference group; it is not an official demographic category. Data were checked on September 11, 2026.
Reference ranking: 14 sovereign states at or below 1.20 TFR
For a broader international comparison, use the dedicated Total Fertility Rate by Country page linked above.
World Bank WDI 2024 TFR values, births per woman
| Rank | Entity | TFR | Region / source note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Korea, Rep. | 0.748 | East Asia & Pacific; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 2 | Singapore | 0.97 | East Asia & Pacific; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 3 | Ukraine | 0.988 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 4 | Malta | 1.01 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 5 | China | 1.013 | East Asia & Pacific; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 6 | Andorra | 1.087 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 7 | Spain | 1.10 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 8 | Lithuania | 1.11 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 9 | Chile | 1.14 | Latin America & Caribbean; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; same published value as Poland. |
| 9 | Poland | 1.14 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; same published value as Chile. |
| 11 | Japan | 1.15 | East Asia & Pacific; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 12 | San Marino | 1.158 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; official published value. |
| 13 | Estonia | 1.18 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; same published value as Italy. |
| 13 | Italy | 1.18 | Europe & Central Asia; World Bank WDI; source year 2024; target year 2024; same published value as Estonia. |
Equal published values share the same rank. Competition ranking is used: Chile and Poland share rank 9, while Estonia and Italy share rank 13. Alphabetical order determines display sequence only.
Insights from the low-fertility reference group
Key Insight
Korea, Rep. has the lowest published value in the selected group at 0.748 births per woman, followed by Singapore at 0.97.
Notable Pattern
Three states in the table are below 1.0: Korea, Rep., Singapore and Ukraine. Five more fall between 1.01 and 1.11.
Regional Concentration
Europe & Central Asia accounts for 9 of the 14 entries, East Asia & Pacific for 4, and Latin America & Caribbean for 1.
Lowest-value separation
Korea, Rep. is separated from the next-lowest entry: Singapore is published at 0.97 births per woman compared with Korea, Rep. at 0.748.
What declining fertility means for populations
Persistently low fertility can make younger generations smaller relative to older generations. Over time, especially when migration does not offset the change, this contributes to population ageing and can reduce the future working-age population.
The effect is not immediate. A country can remain below replacement fertility while its population continues growing because of population momentum, longer life expectancy or immigration. A population can also continue shrinking after fertility rises because earlier low-fertility generations are already small.
OECD analysis suggests that responses to demographic change can combine support for family formation with adaptation. Childcare, parental leave, housing conditions and work-family compatibility can reduce barriers to wanted births, while labour-force participation, productivity and migration can help economies adjust to an older population structure.
A national TFR does not by itself explain why fertility is low. Country-specific causes require separate evidence on housing, employment, family policy, reproductive health, partnership patterns and other local conditions.
Download the Global Fertility Rates: Why Are Birth Rates Declining? dataset
Global Fertility Rates: Why Are Birth Rates Declining?
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Download Excel + CSV Data PackFAQ
What is the global fertility rate?
UN DESA estimates the global total fertility rate at about 2.25 live births per woman in 2024, compared with 3.31 in 1990.
Why are fertility rates declining?
There is no single universal cause. Evidence points to later parenthood, housing and child-related costs, economic uncertainty, work-family constraints, changing family preferences and reproductive choice, with the balance of these factors differing across countries.
Is total fertility rate the same as birth rate?
No. TFR summarizes age-specific fertility in births per woman. Crude birth rate measures annual live births per 1,000 people and is influenced by population age structure.
Are the country values 2026 forecasts?
No. The reference ranking uses published World Bank WDI values for 2024. The 2026 label describes the research snapshot, not the data year.
Does fertility below 2.1 automatically mean population decline?
No. Around 2.1 births per woman is an approximate replacement benchmark for low-mortality populations without migration. Actual population change also depends on mortality, migration and age structure.
Does low fertility mean people no longer want children?
Not necessarily. UNFPA's 2025 research included a 14-country survey in which respondents reported financial pressure, housing, employment insecurity, partner availability and concerns about the future as barriers to achieving their preferred family size.
Why can a country shown as 1.2 elsewhere be excluded here?
Some interfaces display fertility values to only one decimal place. This page applies the 1.20 cutoff to the published WDI numeric observation, so values such as 1.204 or 1.213 are above the threshold even if a rounded label appears as 1.2.
How are equal fertility values ranked?
Equal published values receive the same rank. This page uses competition ranking, so Chile and Poland both rank 9 at 1.14, followed by Japan at rank 11. Estonia and Italy both rank 13 at 1.18.
Can this ranking explain why one country has low fertility?
No. The table compares fertility outcomes. Explaining a country's fertility level requires separate evidence on its economy, family policy, reproductive health, demographics, partnership patterns and social conditions.
Sources
World Bank Data — Fertility rate, total
Primary source for indicator SP.DYN.TFRT.IN, country coverage, unit and the 2024 fertility observations used in the ranking.
World Bank Indicators API — 2024 fertility data
Used to verify the published 2024 numeric observations at their available WDI precision.
https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/all/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?date=2024&format=json&per_page=400
World Bank WDI Metadata — SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
Indicator definition, unit, methodology, periodicity and underlying source information.
https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-development-indicators/series/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
United Nations DESA — World Population Prospects 2024
Global fertility context, including the 2024 global estimate and long-run fertility decline.
https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/World-Population-Prospects-2024
United Nations DESA — Fertility key message
Source for the approximately 2.25 births-per-woman global estimate for 2024 and the comparison with 1990.
https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/Key-message-card3
OECD — Fertility trends across the OECD
Evidence on later parenthood, housing costs, labour-market conditions, childcare, parental leave, work-family compatibility and changing attitudes toward parenthood in OECD countries.
UNFPA — The Real Fertility Crisis
2025 evidence, including a survey across 14 countries, on barriers between desired and realized family size.
Eurostat — Fertility statistics 2024
European cross-check for 2024 fertility values and evidence on the rising mean age at first birth in the European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20260306-1
