Life Expectancy Trends: What Drives Longer Lives in 2025
Life Expectancy Trends in 2025: What Drives Longer Lives
Longer life expectancy is associated with lower mortality across the life course. Better maternal and child survival, prevention and treatment of major chronic diseases, accessible primary health care, safer living conditions, and stronger social conditions such as education, income security and adequate housing all contribute to population health.
United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 estimates show global life expectancy at birth falling from 72.6 years in 2019 to a pandemic-period low of 70.9 years in 2021. The WPP medium projection places global life expectancy at 73.3 years in 2024, above the pre-pandemic level. WHO separately reports a 1.8-year global decline between 2019 and 2021 and describes the subsequent health recovery as slower than the pace of progress before the pandemic.
Metric: life expectancy at birth, both sexes. Year/snapshot: 2025 country projection context with historical global trend evidence. Numeric ranking source type: single-source UN World Population Prospects 2024. Coverage: 10 confirmed WPP countries and areas. Unit: years. Direction: higher ranks higher. Ranking status counts: 10 official_forecast, 0 official_value, 0 calculated_value, 0 modeled_projection. WHO and WHO/UNICEF sources are used only for contextual evidence on longevity drivers.
Highest confirmed UN WPP 2025 median projection in the contextual table.
Tenth entry in the confirmed 2025 context table, about 2.4 years below Monaco.
Ten confirmed UN WPP countries and areas are included for 2025 context.
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes, ranked from higher to lower.
10 official_forecast rows; no calculated or StatRanker-modeled country values.
What drives longer life expectancy?
At population level, longer lives are associated with fewer deaths in infancy and childbirth, prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease, cancer and other noncommunicable diseases, effective primary care, vaccination and infection control, safe water and sanitation, healthier environments, and social conditions that reduce exposure to avoidable health risks.
Global life expectancy is rising again after the pandemic shock
The long-run direction remains upward, but progress has not been smooth. UN World Population Prospects 2024 estimates global life expectancy at 72.6 years in 2019. It fell to about 71.9 years in 2020 and reached a pandemic-period low of 70.9 years in 2021 before rebounding in 2022 and 2023.
WPP 2024 projections place global life expectancy at 73.3 years in 2024 and around 77.4 years in 2054 if mortality continues to decline. The UN also reports that life expectancy had returned to pre-COVID-19 levels in nearly all countries and areas from 2022 onward, although national trajectories differ.
WHO's World Health Statistics 2025 provides a complementary health perspective. WHO reports that global life expectancy declined by 1.8 years between 2019 and 2021 and warns that the post-pandemic recovery in broader health gains has been slower than the earlier pace of improvement.
UN WPP and WHO statistics should not be merged into one statistical series. They use different estimation frameworks and update cycles. They are used here because both independently document the pandemic interruption and subsequent recovery in global longevity.
Six population-level factors linked to longer lives
A country's life expectancy cannot be explained by one variable. The factors below are broad pathways associated with mortality and population health; they are not used to assign causal scores to individual countries in the 2025 context table.
Maternal and child survival
Preventing deaths during pregnancy, childbirth, infancy and childhood raises population survival directly. WHO reports that maternal deaths fell by more than 40% and deaths among children under five more than halved between 2000 and 2023, although progress has slowed.
Primary health care
Accessible primary health care supports vaccination, prevention, early diagnosis, treatment continuity and referral before illness becomes more severe. Its impact depends on affordability, workforce capacity and service quality as well as physical access.
Control of chronic disease
Cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes account for a large share of premature noncommunicable-disease deaths. Tobacco control, healthier diets, physical activity, early detection and effective treatment can reduce major risks.
Social conditions
Education, income, employment, housing and social protection influence exposure to health risks and access to resources and care. WHO's 2025 health-equity report emphasizes that these conditions contribute to large differences in health outcomes.
Water, sanitation and hygiene
Safe drinking water, sanitation and basic hygiene reduce exposure to preventable infectious disease. WHO and UNICEF document major global gains since 2000 while showing that substantial inequalities remain between and within populations.
Prevention across adulthood
Tobacco avoidance, adequate physical activity, healthier diets, lower harmful alcohol exposure and cleaner air affect several major causes of premature mortality. These factors influence population risk over time rather than guaranteeing an individual's lifespan.
Global life expectancy trend: key UN milestones
These selected milestones show the pandemic interruption and the direction of the UN medium projection. Historical estimates and projections are explicitly separated.
Global life expectancy at birth, selected World Population Prospects 2024 milestones
| Period | Value | Status | Source / method note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 72.6 years | official_value | UN WPP 2024 historical estimate; both sexes; pre-pandemic global level. |
| 2021 | 70.9 years | official_value | UN WPP 2024 historical estimate; pandemic-period low following the decline during 2020–2021. |
| 2024 | 73.3 years | official_forecast | UN WPP 2024 medium projection; global life expectancy above the 2019 pre-pandemic level. |
| 2054 | 77.4 years | official_forecast | UN WPP 2024 medium projection assuming further reductions in mortality. |
World Population Prospects 2024 separates estimates through 2023 from medium-scenario projections beginning in 2024. Projected values are therefore not presented as observed mortality outcomes.
2025 country context: leading projections are tightly clustered
The chart uses the same raw UN WPP 2025 projection values as the contextual ranking table. It is included to show the scale of differences near the top, not to replace a separate full country-ranking page.
Methodology
Metric and unit
The metric is life expectancy at birth for both sexes, measured in years. It represents the average number of years a hypothetical cohort would live if exposed throughout life to the age-specific mortality rates represented by the period measure.
Historical trend
The 2019 and 2021 global figures are historical WPP 2024 estimates. They are used to show the pre-pandemic level and the pandemic-period low.
Projection status
World Population Prospects 2024 separates estimates through 2023 from medium-scenario projections beginning in 2024. The 2024, 2025 and 2054 values used here are therefore official UN projections.
Country ranking rule
The 2025 context table uses the WPP medium projection for both sexes and sorts the raw life-expectancy value descending. Higher projected life expectancy ranks higher.
Geographic coverage
WPP publishes data for countries and areas. Special administrative regions and territories may therefore appear alongside sovereign states when they are separate WPP locations.
Driver evidence
WHO and WHO/UNICEF sources support the discussion of primary care, maternal and child survival, noncommunicable diseases, social determinants and WASH. These factors are not converted into artificial country scores.
Inclusion: the contextual ranking contains the 10 highest confirmed WPP 2025 medium-projection values for life expectancy at birth, both sexes. Male-only, female-only, healthy-life-expectancy and different-year values are not mixed into the table.
Conflicts and missing values: alternative national or third-party estimates are not averaged with WPP. A value without a compatible source, year and definition would be excluded rather than estimated.
Rounding: raw 2025 values are retained to four decimal places in the table data attributes and displayed to one decimal place. Rank is calculated from raw values before rounding.
Limits: life expectancy does not directly measure healthy years lived, health-system efficiency, individual lifespan, national income, quality of life or inequality within a country. The country ranking also does not identify which health or social factor caused a particular position.
2025 country context: 10 highest confirmed WPP projections
This table provides a compact 2025 benchmark for the trend analysis. It uses one UN WPP series throughout and does not combine national estimates, older StatRanker rankings or third-party projection methods.
10 highest confirmed UN WPP 2025 life-expectancy projections
| Rank | Entity | Value | Source / method note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 86.6 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Western Europe. official_forecast |
| 2 | San Marino | 85.9 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Southern Europe. official_forecast |
| 3 | China, Hong Kong SAR | 85.8 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Eastern Asia. official_forecast |
| 4 | Japan | 85.0 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Eastern Asia. official_forecast |
| 5 | Republic of Korea | 84.5 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Eastern Asia. official_forecast |
| 6 | Saint Barthélemy | 84.5 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Caribbean. official_forecast |
| 7 | Andorra | 84.3 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Southern Europe. official_forecast |
| 8 | French Polynesia | 84.3 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Polynesia. official_forecast |
| 9 | Switzerland | 84.2 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Western Europe. official_forecast |
| 10 | Australia | 84.2 years | UN WPP 2024; target 2025; medium projection; both sexes; Australia and New Zealand. official_forecast |
All 10 rows use the same source, metric, sex definition, target year and projection framework. Ranking is based on the raw UN WPP value before display rounding.
Insights from the trend and 2025 context
Key Insight
The pandemic interrupted decades of longevity gains, but the UN medium projection places global life expectancy at 73.3 years in 2024, above the 72.6-year estimate for 2019.
Notable Pattern
The 2025 contextual leaders are tightly clustered. Only 2.3972 years separate Monaco in first place from Australia in tenth.
Regional / Source Concentration
Seven of the ten entries are in Europe or Eastern Asia, and all ten values come from one UN WPP projection series rather than a mixture of national sources.
Outlier
Monaco's 86.6107-year projection is about 0.69 year above San Marino in second place, a larger gap than several of the differences between neighboring entries farther down the Top 10.
What longer life expectancy does — and does not — mean
Life expectancy summarizes mortality conditions across ages. When it rises, mortality has improved overall under the period measure, but the headline number does not identify whether the largest gains came from infant survival, cardiovascular treatment, cancer care, infectious-disease control or another pathway.
Life expectancy should also be distinguished from healthy life expectancy. A population can gain years of life without gaining the same number of years in full health, so lifespan and healthspan answer different questions.
The 2025 country values require an additional qualification: they are UN projections. They provide a consistent international comparison, but later observed vital statistics may differ from the projected mortality schedule.
Related StatRanker research
FAQ
What drives longer life expectancy?
Population-level gains are associated with better maternal and child survival, fewer premature deaths from chronic disease, effective primary care, vaccination and infection control, safer water and sanitation, healthier environments and stronger social conditions such as education, income security and housing.
Are the 2025 country figures observed values?
No. The country benchmark uses the 2025 medium projection from United Nations World Population Prospects 2024. Every country row is therefore classified as official_forecast.
When did global life expectancy reach its pandemic-period low?
In the UN World Population Prospects 2024 historical series, global life expectancy fell from 72.6 years in 2019 to about 71.9 in 2020 and reached 70.9 years in 2021 before rebounding.
Has global life expectancy recovered from COVID-19?
The UN reports that life expectancy returned to pre-COVID-19 levels in nearly all countries and areas from 2022 onward. Its medium projection places the global level at 73.3 years in 2024, above the 2019 estimate of 72.6 years. WHO nevertheless describes broader health progress after the pandemic as slower than before.
What does life expectancy at birth measure?
It is the average number of years a hypothetical cohort would live if exposed throughout life to the age-specific mortality rates represented by the period measure. It is not an individual prediction of age at death.
Is life expectancy the same as healthy life expectancy?
No. Life expectancy measures expected years of life under a mortality schedule. Healthy life expectancy also adjusts for years lived in less than full health.
Why can different sources show different life-expectancy values?
Differences can result from target year, revision date, national versus international estimation methods, estimate versus projection status, sex definition, geographic coverage and rounding. This page keeps its 2025 country comparison within one UN WPP series.
Sources
United Nations — World Population Prospects 2024
Primary demographic framework for the historical global trend, projection years and 2025 country context.
UN DESA — World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results
Primary source for the 72.6-year 2019 estimate, 70.9-year 2021 pandemic low, 73.3-year 2024 projection and 77.4-year 2054 projection.
https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Summary-of-Results.pdf
UN Population Division Data Portal
Official access point for the WPP life-expectancy indicator, locations, metadata and projection series.
UNdata — Life Expectancy at Birth for Both Sexes Combined
Official UN table used to cross-check annual WPP life-expectancy values and the 2025 medium projection.
WHO — World Health Statistics 2025
Evidence for the 1.8-year global life-expectancy decline between 2019 and 2021, post-pandemic recovery context, maternal and child survival and premature mortality.
WHO — World Report on Social Determinants of Health Equity
Evidence on education, income, employment, housing and other social conditions associated with health inequalities.
WHO — Noncommunicable Diseases
Evidence on cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes and major modifiable risk factors.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/noncommunicable-diseases
WHO — Primary Health Care
Evidence for the role of prevention, early diagnosis, continuity of care and accessible essential health services.
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/primary-health-care
WHO and UNICEF — Progress on Household Drinking-Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2024
Joint WHO/UNICEF evidence for progress and persistent inequalities in drinking water, sanitation and hygiene.
