Marriage Rates Decline: Why Millennials and Gen Z Are Marrying Less
Declining Marriage Rates: Why Millennials and Gen Z Are Marrying Later
Younger Americans are much less likely to be married at the same ages than young adults were three decades ago. The clearest documented shift is later marriage: first marriages happen at older ages, cohabitation is common, and some non-engaged cohabiters who want to marry report financial or career readiness as reasons they have not yet become engaged or married.
The official U.S. crude marriage rate was 6.1 marriages per 1,000 total population in 2023, compared with 8.2 in both 2000 and 2001. Census estimates also place the median age at first marriage in 2025 at 30.8 for men and 28.4 for women, compared with 23.5 and 21.1 respectively in 1975.
The generational picture is more nuanced than a simple rejection of marriage. In 2023, 29% of adults ages 25 to 29 were married, compared with 50% in 1993. Among ages 18 to 24, the shares were 7% and 18%, and among ages 30 to 34 they were 51% and 63%.
Ranking metric: U.S. crude marriage rate. Coverage: 24 annual observations from 2000 through 2023. Unit: marriages per 1,000 total population. Direction: higher rate ranks higher. Status counts: 24 official_value rows, 0 calculated_value rows, 0 official_forecast rows and 0 modeled_projection rows. The CDC/NCHS national series is officially published and labeled provisional. No 2024, 2025 or 2026 national marriage rate is estimated here.
Data checked September 11, 2026. The historical ranking uses one CDC/NCHS series. The explanatory analysis is a compiled research dataset based on seven cited source pages from CDC/NCHS, the U.S. Census Bureau and Pew Research Center.
2000 and 2001 are tied at 8.2 marriages per 1,000 population.
2020 is the lowest annual observation in the 2000–2023 CDC/NCHS series.
Every annual observation from 2000 through 2023 in the cited national trend table.
Median age at first marriage for men / women in the Census Bureau estimate.
CDC/NCHS provisional series, 2000–2023; marriages per 1,000 total population; checked September 11, 2026.
Why younger Americans are marrying later
The data support several parts of the shift rather than one proven cause. Americans now enter first marriage later, some non-engaged cohabiters who want to marry report financial or career readiness as barriers, cohabitation often precedes marriage for many adults, and U.S. 12th graders were less likely to expect to marry and more likely to be unsure in 2023 than in 1993.
These findings document timing, behavior and reported attitudes. They do not establish what percentage of the national decline is caused by each factor.
1. First marriage happens later
Census estimates place the 2025 median age at first marriage at 30.8 for men and 28.4 for women. In 1975, the corresponding figures were 23.5 and 21.1. The rise in first-marriage age is consistent with the much smaller share of adults who are married during their 20s today.
2. Financial readiness is a reported barrier
Pew survey evidence from 2019 found that among non-engaged cohabiters who wanted to marry someday, 29% cited their partner's financial unreadiness as a major reason they were not engaged or married, while 27% cited their own financial unreadiness. Another 21% cited not being far enough along in their job or career.
3. Cohabitation commonly comes before marriage
Pew's 2026 analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort found that 77% of adults ages 38 to 43 in 2023 had lived with an unmarried romantic partner. Among adults in that cohort who had ever cohabited, about two-thirds had later married someone they had lived with.
4. High-school seniors are less certain about marriage
Pew's 2025 analysis of Monitoring the Future data found that 67% of U.S. 12th graders in 2023 said they would likely choose to marry someday, down from 80% in 1993. Another 24% were unsure, compared with 16% in 1993. These figures measure expectations, not eventual marriage behavior.
Young adults are less likely to be married at the same ages
Age-for-age comparisons provide stronger evidence about young adulthood than the national crude marriage rate alone. Pew's analysis of Current Population Survey data shows lower married shares among young adults in 2023 than among people of the same ages in 1993.
Share of U.S. young adults who were married, 1993 vs. 2023
| Age group | 1993 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| 18–24 | 18% | 7% |
| 25–29 | 50% | 29% |
| 30–34 | 63% | 51% |
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the 1993 and 2023 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement. These are age-group comparisons, not completed lifetime marriage rates for Millennials or Gen Z.
Historical context: 10 highest marriage-rate observations since 2000
The highest observations in the CDC/NCHS 2000–2023 series are concentrated in the early 2000s. Identical published rates share the same rank.
10 highest annual U.S. crude marriage-rate observations, 2000–2023
| Rank | Year | Rate | Source / Method Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (tie) | 2001 | 8.2 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2001 · target year 2001 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 1 (tie) | 2000 | 8.2 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2000 · target year 2000 · published national rate. |
| 3 | 2002 | 8.0 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2002 · target year 2002 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 4 | 2004 | 7.8 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2004 · target year 2004 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 5 | 2003 | 7.7 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2003 · target year 2003 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 6 | 2005 | 7.6 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2005 · target year 2005 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 7 | 2006 | 7.5 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2006 · target year 2006 · Louisiana excluded; revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 8 | 2007 | 7.3 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2007 · target year 2007 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 9 | 2008 | 7.1 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2008 · target year 2008 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 10 | 2016 | 7.0 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2016 · target year 2016 · revised after revised Illinois figures. |
Rank is based only on the published rate, descending. Ties are preserved because CDC/NCHS publishes the rates to one decimal place.
Historical rate distribution: 20 highest observations
Early-2000s observations dominate the upper end of the series, while 2022 is the only 2020s observation among the 20 highest published rates.
Methodology
The ranking metric is the U.S. crude marriage rate published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics through the National Vital Statistics System. The unit is marriages per 1,000 total population, and higher values rank higher.
The explanatory analysis is a compiled research dataset based on seven cited source pages. The historical ranking itself uses one CDC/NCHS series, while Census and Pew provide separate contextual evidence that does not alter the ranking.
Coverage
All 24 annual observations from 2000 through 2023 in the cited CDC/NCHS national trend table are included. No later year is estimated or filled from another source.
Value status
Every ranking row is official_value because the rate is published directly by CDC/NCHS. The table itself is labeled provisional, so the figures remain subject to official revision.
Ranking and ties
Values are ranked from highest to lowest. Because CDC/NCHS publishes the rates to one decimal place, identical values share the same competition rank.
2026 snapshot
Data were checked September 11, 2026. The cited CDC/NCHS national trend series currently runs through 2023, so this page reports the latest available observation rather than constructing a 2026 value.
Formula
The conceptual crude-rate formula is annual marriages divided by the relevant total population, multiplied by 1,000. This page uses the published CDC/NCHS rate and does not recalculate it.
Source hierarchy
Federal statistical sources are used for the national rate and first-marriage timing. Pew analyses provide separate evidence on age groups, intentions, cohabitation and reported barriers. Different metrics are not averaged together.
Conflict and rounding policy
Conflicting values are not averaged. CDC/NCHS is authoritative for the historical ranking, while Census and Pew are used only for separate contextual metrics. Rates are used exactly as published to one decimal place, with no additional rounding or inferred hidden precision.
Generational labels
Generational boundaries are analytical conventions, not official statistical categories. The Pew 2026 NLSY97 analysis covers adults born from 1980 through 1984, spanning late Gen X and the oldest Millennials under Pew's commonly used generation boundaries.
No projections
There are no calculated_value, official_forecast or modeled_projection rows. No CAGR, interpolation or assumed continuation of the historical trend is used.
CDC/NCHS notes several source-specific limitations. The 2013 and 2014 figures exclude Georgia, 2006 excludes Louisiana, the 2016 number and rate were revised after revised Illinois figures, rates for 2001–2009 were revised using intercensal population estimates, and the population basis for the 2010 rate is the 2010 Census.
The national crude rate is not a Millennial-specific or Gen-Z-specific marriage rate. It includes marriages across adult ages and may include remarriages. The age-comparison table is therefore used to describe changes among young adults without treating the national rate as a direct estimate of a generation's eventual likelihood of marrying.
The metric does not measure lifetime marriage probability, first marriages only, relationship quality, marriage duration, divorce risk, cohabitation prevalence or the causal effect of finances, housing, education or cultural attitudes.
Historical evidence behind the decline: U.S. marriage rates, 2000–2023
The table includes every annual observation in the cited CDC/NCHS national series.
Official CDC/NCHS published provisional marriage-rate observations
| Rank | Year | Rate | Source / Method Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (tie) | 2001 | 8.2 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2001 · target year 2001 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 1 (tie) | 2000 | 8.2 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2000 · target year 2000 · published national rate. |
| 3 | 2002 | 8.0 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2002 · target year 2002 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 4 | 2004 | 7.8 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2004 · target year 2004 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 5 | 2003 | 7.7 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2003 · target year 2003 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 6 | 2005 | 7.6 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2005 · target year 2005 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 7 | 2006 | 7.5 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2006 · target year 2006 · Louisiana excluded; revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 8 | 2007 | 7.3 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2007 · target year 2007 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 9 | 2008 | 7.1 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2008 · target year 2008 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 10 | 2016 | 7.0 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2016 · target year 2016 · revised after revised Illinois figures. |
| 11 (tie) | 2017 | 6.9 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2017 · target year 2017 · published national rate. |
| 11 (tie) | 2015 | 6.9 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2015 · target year 2015 · published national rate. |
| 11 (tie) | 2014 | 6.9 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2014 · target year 2014 · Georgia excluded. |
| 14 (tie) | 2013 | 6.8 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2013 · target year 2013 · Georgia excluded. |
| 14 (tie) | 2012 | 6.8 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2012 · target year 2012 · published national rate. |
| 14 (tie) | 2011 | 6.8 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2011 · target year 2011 · published national rate. |
| 14 (tie) | 2010 | 6.8 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2010 · target year 2010 · population based on the 2010 Census. |
| 14 (tie) | 2009 | 6.8 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2009 · target year 2009 · revised using intercensal population estimates. |
| 19 | 2018 | 6.5 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2018 · target year 2018 · published national rate. |
| 20 | 2022 | 6.2 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2022 · target year 2022. |
| 21 (tie) | 2023 | 6.1 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2023 · target year 2023 · latest year in the cited national trend series. |
| 21 (tie) | 2019 | 6.1 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2019 · target year 2019 · published national rate. |
| 23 | 2021 | 6.0 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2021 · target year 2021. |
| 24 | 2020 | 5.1 per 1,000 | official_value · CDC/NCHS provisional series · source year 2020 · target year 2020 · lowest published observation in the series. |
This ranking is part of a compiled research dataset, while all 24 ranked values come from the single CDC/NCHS series. Ties share rank, and values are not extrapolated beyond the published series.
Four findings from the evidence
Key Insight
Later timing is the clearest documented shift: Americans reach first marriage at older median ages, and adults in their 20s are less likely to be married than people of the same ages three decades ago.
Notable Pattern
Lower young-adult marriage prevalence does not mean most young adults reject marriage. Pew's 2024 report, based on a 2023 survey, found that 69% of never-married adults ages 18 to 34 said they wanted to marry someday.
Source Concentration
The historical ranking comes entirely from one CDC/NCHS series. Census and Pew address separate questions about timing, age groups, intentions, cohabitation and reported barriers.
Outlier
The 2020 rate of 5.1 is the clear low point of the 2000–2023 series. It rose to 6.0 in 2021 and 6.2 in 2022 before registering 6.1 in 2023, so 2020 should not be treated as representative of the entire long-run pattern.
What the decline means for Millennials and Gen Z
Longitudinal data now allow researchers to observe relationship sequencing through the early 40s among adults born from 1980 through 1984. Under Pew's commonly used generation boundaries, that cohort spans late Gen X and the oldest Millennials. Pew's 2026 analysis found that cohabitation was common in this cohort and often preceded a later marriage.
Conclusions about Gen Z need to be narrower. Much of the generation has not yet passed through the ages when first marriage is now most common. Current evidence can show lower marriage prevalence at young ages and changing expectations among high-school seniors, but it cannot yet establish Gen Z's completed lifetime marriage rate.
The evidence points to delayed and varied paths into marriage rather than a simple abandonment of marriage. First marriage happens later, cohabitation is common, some non-engaged cohabiters who want to marry report financial or career readiness as barriers, and U.S. 12th graders were less likely to expect to marry and more likely to be unsure in 2023 than in 1993.
Observed values versus projections
All ranked rates are official_value observations directly published by CDC/NCHS; no calculated or projected marriage rates are used.
What not to infer
The data do not establish that one economic or cultural factor caused a particular percentage of the national decline, and they do not yet reveal how many members of Gen Z will eventually marry.
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Marriage Rates Decline: Why Millennials and Gen Z Are Marrying Less
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Download Excel + CSV Data PackFAQ
Are Millennials and Gen Z rejecting marriage?
The evidence does not support a blanket conclusion that younger generations have rejected marriage. Young adults are marrying later and are less likely to be married at younger ages, while Pew's 2024 report, based on a 2023 survey, found that 69% of never-married adults ages 18 to 34 wanted to marry someday.
Why are younger Americans marrying later?
The evidence documents later first-marriage timing, financial and career readiness as reported barriers among some non-engaged cohabiters who want to marry, common cohabitation before marriage and changing marriage expectations among U.S. high-school seniors. The sources do not provide a causal percentage for each factor.
What is the latest U.S. national marriage rate used here?
CDC/NCHS reports a provisional 2023 rate of 6.1 marriages per 1,000 total population; the cited series was checked September 11, 2026.
At what age are Americans marrying for the first time?
Census Bureau estimates for 2025 place the median age at first marriage at 30.8 for men and 28.4 for women.
Does cohabitation mean people are avoiding marriage permanently?
Not necessarily. Pew's 2026 NLSY97 analysis found that among adults ages 38 to 43 who had ever cohabited, about two-thirds had later married someone they had lived with.
Do finances play a role in delayed marriage?
Financial readiness is a reported barrier for some non-engaged cohabiters who want to marry. Pew's 2019 survey found that some cited their own or their partner's financial unreadiness as a major reason they had not yet become engaged or married.
Can we already know whether Gen Z will marry less over their lifetimes?
No. Much of Gen Z has not yet reached or passed through today's typical first-marriage ages, so a completed lifetime marriage rate for the generation is not yet observable.
Sources
The explanatory analysis is a compiled research dataset based on seven cited source pages from three institutions. CDC/NCHS supplies every value in the 24-row historical ranking; Census and Pew provide separate evidence on timing, age groups, intentions, cohabitation and reported barriers.
CDC/NCHS — National Marriage and Divorce Rate Trends, 2000–2023
Description: Official National Center for Health Statistics table covering U.S. marriage counts, population and crude marriage rates for 2000–2023, including historical revision notes.
Purpose: Primary numeric source for every row in the historical ranking and for source-year limitations and revisions.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/marriage-divorce/national-marriage-divorce-rates-00-23.pdf
CDC/NCHS — Marriages and Divorces
Description: Official CDC/NCHS overview page for National Vital Statistics System marriage and divorce data.
Purpose: Confirms the national trend coverage and provides official context for the 2000–2023 marriage-rate series.
U.S. Census Bureau — Families and Living Arrangements, 2025
Description: Census Bureau release based on Current Population Survey estimates describing U.S. family and household patterns in 2025.
Purpose: Supplies the 2025 estimated median age at first marriage and the comparison with 1975.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/families-and-living-arrangements.html
Pew Research Center — Parents, Young Adult Children and the Transition to Adulthood
Description: Pew Research Center analysis of young-adult milestones using Current Population Survey data and a 2023 survey of U.S. adults.
Purpose: Supplies married-share comparisons for ages 18–24, 25–29 and 30–34 in 1993 versus 2023 and the marriage-intention finding for never-married adults ages 18–34.
Pew Research Center — Marriage intentions among U.S. 12th graders
Description: 2025 Pew analysis of Monitoring the Future survey data on high-school seniors' expectations about future marriage.
Purpose: Supplies the 1993 versus 2023 comparison for 12th graders who expected to marry or were unsure about marriage.
Pew Research Center — Cohabitation by the early 40s
Description: August 2026 Pew analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort, covering adults born from 1980 through 1984.
Purpose: Documents the prevalence of cohabitation and subsequent marriage to a cohabiting partner by the early 40s.
Pew Research Center — Why people get married or move in with a partner
Description: 2019 Pew survey analysis of marriage, cohabitation and reasons adults give for their relationship choices.
Purpose: Supplies historical self-reported financial and career reasons among non-engaged cohabiters who wanted to marry someday.
