Global Infrastructure Gap Explained: 2026 Methodology Snapshot
What the global infrastructure gap means in the 2026 snapshot
The Global Infrastructure Hub and Oxford Economics estimated a baseline global infrastructure investment gap of about US$14.9 trillion for 2016–2040 in 2015 prices and exchange rates. The underlying model estimated approximately US$78.8 trillion of investment under current trends versus US$93.7 trillion of investment need.
The 2026 date is the research snapshot date, not a new forecast year. The country table contains 10 verified values that trace to the Global Infrastructure Outlook and are ranked only within this sample by cumulative infrastructure investment gap.
The table is a compiled research dataset based on 3 row-level numeric sources, with row-level source and method notes; additional sources provide methodology and 2026 context.
$93.7T modeled investment need minus $78.8T investment under current trends for 2016–2040.
United States. GI Hub identifies the US gap as the most significant of any country in the original Outlook.
Egypt is the lowest value among the 10 verified entries included in this sample.
The original July 2017 Global Infrastructure Outlook release covered 50 countries and seven sectors.
Cumulative 2016–2040 forecast; 10 official_forecast rows. No synthetic 2026 country projections are added.
How is the global infrastructure gap calculated?
Global Infrastructure Outlook compares two modeled paths. The current-trend forecast estimates infrastructure investment if countries continue to invest broadly in line with existing patterns as economic and demographic fundamentals change. The investment-need forecast estimates the investment associated with matching the infrastructure performance of better-performing peers after controlling for country characteristics.
The 2017 baseline covered electricity, roads, rail, telecommunications, water, airports and ports. The study focused on infrastructure capital investment rather than treating the gap as a measure of infrastructure quality, fiscal capacity or project finance already committed.
Largest values within the verified country sample
These sample ranks use raw cumulative gap values in descending order. They do not measure infrastructure quality, gap per capita or gap as a percentage of GDP.
Five largest values within the verified 10-country sample
| Rank | Entity | Gap | Source / Method Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | $3.808T | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative forecast 2016–2040; billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. |
| 2 | China | $1.925T | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative forecast 2016–2040; billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. |
| 3 | Brazil | $1.189T | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative forecast 2016–2040; billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. |
| 4 | Russia | $727B | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative forecast 2016–2040; billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. |
| 5 | Mexico | $544B | official_forecast OECD 2022 directly publishes a $544B GI Hub infrastructure-gap value; its comparison figure cites G-20 Infrastructure Outlook data accessed in 2021; target year 2040. |
Ranks are calculated only within the verified sample from raw values before display formatting.
Chart: 10 verified country infrastructure gap forecasts
The bars use the same raw values as the main table and are scaled to the largest verified entry.
Methodology: how the infrastructure-gap forecast works
Global Infrastructure Outlook uses a top-down econometric framework. The current-trend forecast assumes countries continue to invest broadly in line with existing trends, with changes driven by economic and demographic fundamentals. The investment-need forecast estimates the investment associated with matching the performance of better-performing peers after controlling for country characteristics.
Metric
Cumulative infrastructure investment gap: investment need minus investment expected under current trends.
Forecast horizon
Target year: 2040. The original report presents cumulative forecast results for 2016–2040.
Unit and price basis
Billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. Later institutional reproductions are used only when they directly state a country-gap figure from the Global Infrastructure Outlook lineage.
Coverage
The first release covered 50 countries and seven sectors. GI Hub states that the Outlook was expanded in 2018 to 56 countries.
Source dates. Publication year is kept separate from target year and forecast period. GI Hub factsheet rows use a 2017 source year. Mexico, Italy and Argentina use an OECD publication released in 2022 whose comparison figure cites G-20 Infrastructure Outlook data accessed in 2021. Egypt uses the detailed infrastructure-connectivity chapter of the OECD Investment Policy Review published in 2020.
How the values are classified. All 10 displayed values are official_forecast because each displayed gap is directly stated in a GI Hub/Oxford Economics publication or in an OECD publication reproducing the infrastructure-gap forecast.
Egypt treatment. OECD’s 2020 Investment Policy Review states that Egypt’s infrastructure investment gap amounts to around US$230 billion across all sectors, based on Global Infrastructure Hub estimates of investment needs through 2040. That directly published cumulative figure is used rather than recalculating the gap from separate inputs.
Missing and conflicting data. Figures are not averaged. Countries are included only where the value, source and forecast context can be identified; no attempt is made to fill the remaining country universe with inferred values.
Limits. An absolute infrastructure gap does not measure infrastructure quality, affordability, fiscal capacity, gap per capita, gap as a share of GDP, project-level financing commitments or delivery performance.
Why $14.9 trillion and $20 trillion are not directly comparable
The two figures use different price bases: the original approximately US$14.9 trillion baseline gap is reported in 2015 prices and exchange rates, while Infrastructure Monitor 2024 presents approximately US$20 trillion for 2016–2040 in 2023 prices.
Infrastructure Monitor 2024 pairs that later-price gap with approximately US$125 trillion of infrastructure investment needs. The US$20 trillion figure is therefore useful as a later price-level presentation, but it is not substituted into the legacy country sample.
Why PwC’s 2026 Global Infrastructure Outlook is a different metric
PwC’s Global Infrastructure Outlook 2025–50, developed with Oxford Economics and released in 2026, forecasts infrastructure spending across nine sectors and 20 subsectors in 45 countries and territories. It projects annual global infrastructure spending rising from US$4.4 trillion in 2024 to US$6.9 trillion in 2050, with cumulative spending of US$151.1 trillion.
The US$151.1 trillion figure measures forecast infrastructure spending, not the legacy GI Hub gap between current-trend investment and investment need. The two outlooks also differ in period, coverage and sector definitions, so their totals are not merged.
Main table: verified country infrastructure gap sample
The table ranks 10 verified gap values from highest to lowest within the sample. It is not presented as the complete global Top 10 across the full Outlook universe.
Ten verified infrastructure-gap forecasts ranked within the research sample
| Rank | Entity | Gap | Source / Method Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | $3.808T | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative period 2016–2040; billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. |
| 2 | China | $1.925T | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative period 2016–2040; billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. |
| 3 | Brazil | $1.189T | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative period 2016–2040; billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. |
| 4 | Russia | $727B | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative period 2016–2040; billion US$, 2015 prices and exchange rates. |
| 5 | Mexico | $544B | official_forecast OECD 2022 directly publishes a $544B GI Hub gap; comparison figure cites G-20 Infrastructure Outlook data accessed in 2021; target year 2040. |
| 6 | India | $526B | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet directly publishes a $526B gap for India; source 2017; target year 2040; cumulative period 2016–2040. |
| 7 | Türkiye | $405B | official_forecast GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet directly publishes a $405B gap for Turkey; source 2017; target year 2040. Current country name displayed as Türkiye. |
| 8 | Italy | $373B | official_forecast OECD 2022 directly publishes a $373B infrastructure gap; comparison figure cites G-20 Infrastructure Outlook data accessed in 2021; target year 2040. |
| 9 | Argentina | $358B | official_forecast OECD 2022 directly publishes a $358B infrastructure gap; comparison figure cites G-20 Infrastructure Outlook data accessed in 2021; target year 2040. |
| 10 | Egypt | $230B | official_forecast OECD Investment Policy Reviews: Egypt 2020 states that Egypt’s infrastructure gap amounts to around $230B across all sectors, based on Global Infrastructure Hub estimates through 2040. |
The table is a compiled research dataset based on 3 row-level numeric sources: the 2017 GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet, OECD 2022 and OECD 2020. Values are not averaged across sources.
Insights from the verified sample
Key Insight
The United States is the largest verified value at US$3.808 trillion. GI Hub identifies the US gap as the most significant of any country in the original Outlook.
Notable Pattern
China’s US$1.925 trillion gap is about 50.6% of the US value. Brazil is the last entry in the sample above US$1 trillion; Russia and all subsequent entries are below that threshold.
Regional / Source Concentration
The sample contains four entries from the Americas, three from Asia, two from Europe and one from Africa. Six values are published directly in the 2017 GI Hub factsheet.
Outlier
The US gap is about 1.98 times China’s. This describes absolute forecast dollars and does not establish that US infrastructure quality is worse.
What the infrastructure gap means for readers
The gap is a difference between two modeled investment paths, not an unpaid bill or a direct measure of funding already missing from public budgets. It accumulates investment requirements over a long forecast horizon.
Absolute dollar rankings are affected by economic scale. A country can have a smaller absolute gap but face a larger challenge relative to GDP, population or fiscal resources.
Cross-publication comparisons also require a consistent price basis and metric. A spending forecast, a financing gap and an infrastructure-quality indicator answer different questions.
FAQ
What was the baseline global infrastructure investment gap?
The 2017 Global Infrastructure Outlook estimated approximately US$93.7 trillion of investment need for 2016–2040 versus about US$78.8 trillion under current trends, leaving a baseline gap of about US$14.9 trillion in 2015 prices and exchange rates.
Are these new 2026 country forecasts?
No. The 2026 date identifies this methodology snapshot. The country values come from the legacy Global Infrastructure Outlook forecast lineage and retain a target year of 2040.
Is the country table a complete global Top 10?
No. It ranks 10 verified country values within the research sample. It does not claim to reproduce the complete ordering of all 50 countries in the original release or all 56 countries in the later Outlook.
Are all 10 displayed gaps directly published?
Yes. Six values are published in the 2017 GI Hub/Oxford Economics factsheet, three are directly shown in OECD 2022, and Egypt’s approximately US$230 billion gap is directly reported in OECD Investment Policy Reviews: Egypt 2020.
Why do some rows have a 2020 or 2022 source year?
Source year identifies the publication that directly states the displayed gap. It is not a base year and does not change the 2040 target year of the underlying long-term infrastructure forecast.
Why does Infrastructure Monitor 2024 show a US$20 trillion gap?
The later report presents approximately US$125 trillion of infrastructure needs and a US$20 trillion gap for 2016–2040 in 2023 prices. The original Outlook baseline uses 2015 prices and exchange rates, so the two dollar totals are not directly interchangeable.
Is PwC’s 2026 Global Infrastructure Outlook the same dataset?
No. PwC’s 2025–50 Outlook uses a separate Oxford Economics infrastructure-spending model covering nine sectors, 20 subsectors and 45 countries and territories. Its US$151.1 trillion cumulative figure is forecast spending through 2050, not the legacy infrastructure investment gap.
Does a larger gap mean worse infrastructure?
No. This table compares absolute forecast dollar gaps. Infrastructure quality, affordability, per-capita need, gap relative to GDP and delivery capacity require separate measures.
Sources
The compiled ranking uses three row-level numeric sources. Additional sources establish the original methodology, later Outlook coverage, the 2023-price comparison and the separate 2026 infrastructure-spending forecast.
Global Infrastructure Hub / Oxford Economics — 2017 Factsheet
Row-level numeric source for the United States, China, Brazil, Russia, India and Türkiye; also provides the 50-country, seven-sector baseline and global gap summary.
https://cdn.gihub.org/umbraco/media/1530/global-infrastructure-outlook-factsheet-24-july-2017.pdf
OECD — Facilitating the Implementation of the Mexican Supreme Audit Institution’s Mandate
Row-level numeric source published in 2022 for Mexico, Italy and Argentina. Its comparison chart cites G-20 Infrastructure Outlook data accessed in 2021.
OECD Investment Policy Reviews: Egypt 2020 — Infrastructure Connectivity
Row-level numeric source for Egypt. The detailed infrastructure-connectivity chapter states that Egypt’s infrastructure gap amounts to around US$230 billion across all sectors, based on Global Infrastructure Hub estimates through 2040.
Global Infrastructure Hub / Oxford Economics — 2017 Full Report
Primary methodology source for the cumulative 2016–2040 forecasts, 2015 prices and exchange rates, sector definitions and original 50-country study.
Global Infrastructure Outlook — GI Hub
Coverage and methodology source. States that the Outlook was first released with 50 countries and later expanded in 2018 to 56 countries.
Infrastructure Monitor 2024
Context source for the later presentation of approximately US$125 trillion in infrastructure needs and a US$20 trillion gap for 2016–2040 in 2023 prices.
https://ppp.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2025-05/infrastructure-monitor-2024-report.pdf
PwC — Global Infrastructure Outlook 2025–50
2026 context source for the separate Oxford Economics spending model covering 45 countries and territories, nine sectors and 20 subsectors, with US$151.1 trillion of cumulative spending through 2050.
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/news-room/press-releases/2026/pwc-2026-global-infrastructure.html
