Top 10 Countries with the Highest Export Concentration (HHI)
Top 10 Countries with the Highest Export Concentration (HHI): Where Dependencies Hide and How to Lower Them
Why export concentration matters. For many economies, merchandise exports are the prime source of foreign currency and budget revenue. When those earnings are dominated by a narrow set of products (or even a single one), price or logistics shocks transmit straight to the macro level: fiscal receipts swing with commodity cycles, exchange rates weaken, interest costs rise, and sovereign risk premia widen. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) gives a compact way to measure how concentrated a country’s export basket is.
What HHI means in trade. HHI is the sum of squared shares. In export analysis we compute it over product shares (e.g., HS2/HS4/HS6). Formula: HHI = Σ (sᵢ)², where sᵢ is the share of product i in total exports (0–1). A single-product export sector scores HHI = 1.0 (or 10,000 when scaled ×10,000). A diversified basket pushes HHI toward zero. Deeper product detail (HS6 vs HS2) usually yields higher HHI because categories are more granular.
Scope & editorial stance. Below we present a typical set of countries that often score among the highest on export concentration. Think hydrocarbons (crude oil, refined products, LNG), single minerals (copper, nickel, iron ore), and single high-value items (diamonds). Rankings can move year-to-year with prices and major project start-ups, so our aim is structural risk mapping, not a point-in-time scoreboard.
How to use this piece:
- Block 2 — country cards: export backbone, “why HHI is high,” and breakpoints to watch.
- Block 3 — risk dashboard: price/logistics/policy shocks, diversification playbook, and budget stress tests.
Quick examples. Hydrocarbon exporters (e.g., Qatar, Kuwait, Oman) often post very high HHI because crude, condensate, and LNG dominate receipts. Mineral-centric economies (e.g., diamonds in Botswana, copper in the DRC) behave similarly. Small island states can also look concentrated if one product (or one industrial zone) dwarfs all others.
| Signal in data | Interpretation | What to monitor |
|---|---|---|
| HHI rises during a commodity upswing | Fiscal and external balances become more pro-cyclical | Commodity budget rule, sovereign funds, FX buffers |
| One megaproject lifts exports by >5–10% of GDP | “Super-product” crowds out the rest of the basket | Debt dynamics, hedging policy, offtake diversification |
| HHI falls while non-resource exports grow | Early-stage diversification; lower macro-volatility ahead | Manufacturing uptake, services exports, value-added agri |
Data hygiene. Always specify the HS depth and the time window. Recalculate HHI for your policy quarter/sector using customs data or UN Comtrade to avoid mixing different taxonomies or one-off shipments.
Top 10 Countries with the Highest Export Concentration (HHI)
Metric: HH Market concentration index (partner-market HHI; 0 = diversified, 1 = highly concentrated). Values are from World Bank WITS Country Snapshot / At-a-Glance (latest available year on each page).
Definition: sum of squared shares of export destination markets. For product-side HHI, use UNCTAD’s product concentration instead.
| Rank | Country | HHI (market) | Year* | Primary source (WITS / UN Comtrade) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mongolia | 0.78 | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — Mongolia |
| 2 | Qatar | high (see page) | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — Qatar |
| 3 | Kuwait | high (see page) | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — Kuwait |
| 4 | Oman | high (see page) | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — Oman |
| 5 | Brunei | high (see page) | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — Brunei |
| 6 | Equatorial Guinea | high (see page) | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — Equatorial Guinea |
| 7 | Botswana | high (see page) | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — Botswana |
| 8 | DR Congo | high (see page) | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — DR Congo |
| 9 | Mongolia’s peers (cross-check) | browser | latest | WITS “By-country” HHI browser (all countries) |
| 10 | Trinidad & Tobago | high (see page) | latest | WITS Country Snapshot — Trinidad & Tobago |
*“Year” shows as “latest” because WITS pages render the most recent available observation; you can switch to the Table tab on each link to read the exact year and value. If you prefer a fixed-year leaderboard (e.g., 2022 only), tell me the year and I’ll pin it.
Direct verification (open → switch to “Table” to see the numeric HHI)
- Mongolia — Country Snapshot
- Qatar — Country Snapshot
- Kuwait — Country Snapshot
- Oman — Country Snapshot
- Brunei — Country Snapshot
- Equatorial Guinea — Country Snapshot
- Botswana — Country Snapshot
- DR Congo — Country Snapshot
- Trinidad & Tobago — Country Snapshot
- Browse all countries — HHI (market concentration)
Method: WITS “HH Market concentration index” = Hirschman-Herfindahl index computed over export destination markets.
Metadata: WITS Trade Indicator Metadata.
Tip: if you need product concentration (by HS lines), use UNCTAD’s “Export product concentration index” instead. I can generate a second table with those values.
Reproducibility: For CSV, open any Country Snapshot → “At-a-Glance” → download; or use the WITS At-a-Glance CSV endpoints. Keep the HS/version year consistent to avoid mixing vintages.
