Infectious Disease Outbreaks: Are We Prepared for the Next Pandemic?
Global Pandemic Preparedness in 2026: What the Latest WHO Data Show
Partly, but major preparedness gaps remain. WHO's latest 2025 State Party Self-Assessment Annual Reporting data show a global average IHR capacity score of 63%. WHO received reports from 196 of 197 States Parties, while surveillance was the strongest global core capacity at 79% and chemical-event preparedness was the weakest at 53%.
This September 2026 snapshot ranks all 15 International Health Regulations core capacities reported in WHO's 2025 e-SPAR dataset. The metric is the global average capacity score across 196 reporting States Parties, expressed as a percentage. Higher scores indicate greater reported attainment of the relevant IHR preparedness capacity.
The article uses 11 primary WHO sources. The 15-capacity ranking itself is a single-source dataset based on the official WHO e-SPAR 2025 global capacity table. Additional WHO sources are used only for current outbreak signals, International Health Regulations changes and the status of the WHO Pandemic Agreement.
Coverage: all 15 SPAR core capacities. Direction: higher score ranks higher. Status: 15 official_value rows, 0 calculated_value, 0 official_forecast and 0 modeled_projection. SPAR is a State Party self-assessment system and should not be interpreted as an independent stress test or a probability that the next pandemic will be contained.
Surveillance ranks first among all 15 WHO IHR core capacities in 2025.
WHO's 2025 overall average across 196 reporting States Parties.
Chemical-event preparedness is the lowest-scoring of the 15 reported capacities.
WHO reports 99% SPAR submission coverage and 91% multisectoral involvement.
Source: WHO e-SPAR. Ranking universe: 15 capacities. Status counts: 15 official_value, 0 calculated_value, 0 official_forecast, 0 modeled_projection.
What pandemic preparedness means in practice
Pandemic preparedness is the capacity to detect, assess, report and respond to serious health threats while maintaining essential health services. Under WHO's current SPAR framework, preparedness is measured through 35 indicators grouped into 15 IHR core capacities covering governance, financing, laboratories, surveillance, workforce, emergency management, health services, infection control, risk communication, border health, zoonoses, food safety and selected non-infectious hazards.
The latest global data do not support either extreme conclusion that the world is fully prepared or that preparedness systems have failed completely. Surveillance scores 79%, but five capacities remain below 60%: infection prevention and control, human resources, policy and legal instruments, radiation emergencies and chemical events.
Where preparedness is strongest
Surveillance, health emergency management, health services provision and laboratory capacity are the four highest-scoring global SPAR capacities in 2025. These functions are central to detecting abnormal events, confirming pathogens and organizing a response.
Where preparedness remains weaker
Chemical-event readiness, policy and legal instruments, radiation emergencies, human resources and infection prevention and control occupy the bottom five positions. These gaps matter because outbreaks test systems simultaneously rather than one capacity at a time.
Current infectious disease outbreaks are already testing preparedness
Preparedness is not an abstract future problem. WHO was tracking multiple infectious-disease threats in 2026 that require different combinations of surveillance, laboratories, vaccination, infection control, border coordination, clinical care and risk communication.
Bundibugyo Ebola disease
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, WHO reported 5,794 confirmed cases and 2,786 deaths as of 26 August 2026, across 60 health zones in six provinces. WHO stated that the outbreak remained a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following the August Emergency Committee review.
Avian influenza at the human-animal interface
WHO reported one newly notified human infection with influenza A(H5N1) and eight with A(H9N2) during the assessment period. Novel influenza infections remain notifiable to WHO under the IHR and continue to test surveillance at the human-animal interface.
Mpox
WHO released version 7 of its global mpox rapid risk assessment in August 2026, evaluating public-health impact, geographical spread and the risk that available control capacity may be insufficient. Mpox continues to require surveillance, diagnostic capacity, sequencing, infection control and targeted vaccination.
International spread of poliovirus
WHO's 45th Polio IHR Emergency Committee review concluded that international spread of wild poliovirus type 1 and circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses continued to constitute a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
Multi-country cholera outbreaks
WHO reported 47,758 new cholera and acute watery diarrhoea cases from 18 countries across four WHO regions in June 2026, with 354 reported deaths. From 1 January through 28 June 2026, 163,031 cases and 1,686 deaths were reported from 26 countries across four WHO regions.
These events are examples of active or recently assessed infectious-disease threats, not a ranking of outbreak severity and not an exhaustive list of events to which WHO is responding. WHO notes that cholera and acute watery diarrhoea totals may include suspected and confirmed cases and can be revised as reporting is updated.
Top 10 global IHR preparedness capacities in 2025
Surveillance is the clear leader at 79%. Health emergency management and health services provision both score 70%, followed by laboratory capacity at 69%. The Top 10 also shows that several system functions cluster in the low-to-mid 60s rather than close to full attainment.
Top 10 of all 15 WHO SPAR core capacities, global average score, 2025
| Rank | IHR core capacity | Score | Category / note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Surveillance | 79% | Detection & workforce; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; global average across N=196 reporting States Parties. |
| 2 | Health emergency management | 70% | Response & care; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; tied raw score ordered by WHO capacity code. |
| 3 | Health services provision | 70% | Response & care; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as health emergency management. |
| 4 | Laboratory | 69% | Detection & workforce; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; global self-assessment aggregate. |
| 5 | IHR coordination, National IHR Focal Point functions and advocacy | 66% | Governance & financing; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; global self-assessment aggregate. |
| 6 | Risk communication and community engagement | 65% | Response & care; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; tied raw score ordered by WHO capacity code. |
| 7 | Zoonotic diseases | 65% | Cross-border & One Health; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as risk communication and community engagement. |
| 8 | Financing | 62% | Governance & financing; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; tied raw score ordered by WHO capacity code. |
| 9 | Points of entry and border health | 62% | Cross-border & One Health; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as financing and food safety. |
| 10 | Food safety | 62% | Cross-border & One Health; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as financing and points of entry. |
Rank is based on the raw WHO global average capacity score, descending. Equal scores are ordered by WHO capacity code only to create a stable display order; the tie-break does not imply a difference in preparedness.
Chart: all 15 global IHR preparedness capacities
The chart uses the same raw 2025 scores as the ranking table. Surveillance is the only capacity above 75%, while five capacities score below 60%.
Methodology
Metric
The ranking uses the WHO e-SPAR 2025 global average score for each of the 15 International Health Regulations core capacities.
Unit and direction
Unit: percent. Direction: descending. A higher score means a higher reported level of attainment for that IHR capacity.
Coverage
The universe is complete: all 15 capacities in the WHO SPAR second-edition framework are included. WHO reports N=196 reporting States Parties for 2025.
Data status
All 15 rows are official_value because the global capacity scores are directly published by WHO e-SPAR. No row is calculated, forecast or modeled.
Source mode
The ranking is single-source. All 15 ranked values come from the same official WHO e-SPAR 2025 global capacity table. Other WHO sources on this page provide context only.
SPAR method
WHO's SPAR second edition contains 35 indicators across 15 capacities. States Parties complete the annual self-assessment using a multisectoral process.
Self-assessment limitation
SPAR values are official reported preparedness data, but the underlying inputs are national self-assessments. They are not independent external audits or observed outbreak-performance scores.
Ties and rounding
Rows are sorted by raw score descending. Equal scores are ordered by WHO capacity code for stable display. WHO publishes these values as whole percentages; no synthetic precision is introduced.
The research-group filters are navigation aids only. They are not WHO categories used to calculate the score and do not change ranking values. No WHO core capacity has been excluded and no conflicting values have been averaged.
The 63% overall global SPAR score is a contextual WHO indicator and is not a sixteenth ranking row. SPAR does not measure the probability that a future pandemic will be contained, mortality in a future emergency, vaccine-production capacity, political decision-making or real-world response speed.
Main ranking: all 15 WHO IHR preparedness capacities
This table includes the complete 2025 SPAR capacity universe. Search by capacity, filter by research grouping or status, and sort the existing WHO values.
Global IHR core capacity ranking, WHO e-SPAR 2025
| Rank | IHR core capacity | Score | Category / note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Surveillance | 79% | Detection & workforce; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; N=196 reporting States Parties; global self-assessment aggregate. |
| 2 | Health emergency management | 70% | Response & care; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; tied raw score ordered by WHO capacity code. |
| 3 | Health services provision | 70% | Response & care; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as health emergency management. |
| 4 | Laboratory | 69% | Detection & workforce; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; global self-assessment aggregate. |
| 5 | IHR coordination, National IHR Focal Point functions and advocacy | 66% | Governance & financing; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; global self-assessment aggregate. |
| 6 | Risk communication and community engagement | 65% | Response & care; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; tied raw score ordered by WHO capacity code. |
| 7 | Zoonotic diseases | 65% | Cross-border & One Health; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as risk communication and community engagement. |
| 8 | Financing | 62% | Governance & financing; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; tied raw score ordered by WHO capacity code. |
| 9 | Points of entry and border health | 62% | Cross-border & One Health; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as financing and food safety. |
| 10 | Food safety | 62% | Cross-border & One Health; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as financing and points of entry. |
| 11 | Infection prevention and control | 59% | Response & care; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; global self-assessment aggregate. |
| 12 | Human resources | 57% | Detection & workforce; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; global self-assessment aggregate. |
| 13 | Policy, legal and normative instruments to implement IHR | 56% | Governance & financing; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; tied raw score ordered by WHO capacity code. |
| 14 | Radiation emergencies | 56% | Hazard-specific; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; same raw score as policy and legal instruments. |
| 15 | Chemical events | 53% | Hazard-specific; official_value; WHO e-SPAR; source year 2025; target year 2025; lowest global core-capacity score in the 2025 table. |
Ranking source: WHO e-SPAR public capacity score table for all WHO regions and all reporting States Parties, 2025. Category labels are research navigation aids only and do not alter the official WHO scores.
What the 2025 preparedness ranking shows
Key Insight
Surveillance leads at 79%, nine percentage points above the next-highest capacities. Detection is therefore the strongest part of the current global SPAR profile, although surveillance alone cannot contain an outbreak.
Notable Pattern
Health emergency management and health services provision both score 70%, while laboratory capacity scores 69%. The strongest cluster therefore covers detection, operational response and service delivery.
Regional/Source Concentration
All 15 ranked values come from the same WHO e-SPAR 2025 global capacity table. Source variation therefore does not affect the relative ranking; the main comparability limitation is that SPAR is based on State Party self-assessment.
Outlier
Chemical-event preparedness ranks last at 53%, 26 percentage points below surveillance. Although chemical-event readiness is not an infectious-disease capacity, it remains part of the same all-hazards IHR preparedness framework.
What this means for the next pandemic
The latest data suggest that the world has stronger capabilities in detecting threats than in several systems needed to sustain a response. A pathogen can still exploit weak infection control, staffing shortages, financing constraints, fragmented governance or unequal access to medical products even when surveillance identifies the threat quickly.
A 63% global SPAR average should not be interpreted as a 63% probability of successful pandemic control. SPAR measures reported capacity attainment. Real-world performance depends on how those capacities operate together under pressure.
International Health Regulations
The 2024 IHR amendments entered into force generally on 19 September 2025 and introduced changes including the “pandemic emergency” alert level and National IHR Authorities. WHO reports that 11 of the 196 IHR States Parties rejected the 2024 amendments; previous versions continue to apply to those States Parties unless a rejection is withdrawn.
WHO Pandemic Agreement
The Agreement was adopted on 20 May 2025 but is not yet in force. Its Pathogen Access and Benefit Sharing annex remains under negotiation. WHO scheduled the eighth IGWG meeting for 14–18 September 2026. After the annex is adopted, the Agreement can open for signature and ratification and will enter into force 30 days after 60 countries ratify it.
For practical preparedness analysis, SPAR should be read alongside Joint External Evaluations, simulation exercises, outbreak-response performance, laboratory and genomic capacity, vaccine and therapeutic access, hospital resilience, workforce depth, financing and continuity of essential services.
Related StatRanker research
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Are we prepared for the next pandemic?
Only partly. WHO's latest 2025 SPAR data show a global average IHR capacity score of 63%. Surveillance is relatively strong at 79%, but five capacities important to sustained preparedness remain below 60%.
What is WHO SPAR?
SPAR is the International Health Regulations States Parties Self-Assessment Annual Reporting system. Its second edition uses 35 indicators across 15 core capacities needed to detect, assess, notify, report and respond to public-health risks and acute events.
Are the values in this ranking official?
Yes. All 15 ranking values are directly published by WHO e-SPAR and are classified here as official_value. The underlying national information is nevertheless self-assessed by States Parties rather than independently audited.
Which preparedness capacity is strongest globally?
Surveillance ranks first in WHO's 2025 global capacity table at 79%. Health emergency management and health services provision follow at 70%.
Which preparedness capacities are weakest?
Chemical-event preparedness scores 53%, policy and legal instruments and radiation emergencies 56%, human resources 57%, and infection prevention and control 59%.
Is the WHO Pandemic Agreement in force?
No. It was adopted in May 2025, but the PABS annex still has to be finalized and adopted before the Agreement can open for signature and ratification. WHO states that it will enter into force 30 days after 60 ratifications.
What changed in the International Health Regulations?
The 2024 amendments introduced changes including a “pandemic emergency” alert level, National IHR Authorities and provisions related to equity, access to health products and financing. They entered into force generally on 19 September 2025, while WHO reports that 11 States Parties rejected the 2024 amendments.
Does a high SPAR score guarantee good outbreak performance?
No. SPAR measures reported capacity attainment. Actual outbreak performance also depends on speed of implementation, clinical capacity, workforce availability, financing, logistics, public trust, medical-countermeasure access and the characteristics of the pathogen.
Sources
WHO e-SPAR — Public Capacity Score 2025
Single primary numeric source for all 15 values in the ranking and chart.
https://extranet.who.int/e-spar/Report/PublicCapacityScore2023
WHO Global Health Observatory — IHR SPAR
Context source for 2025 submission coverage, the 63% global average and 91% multisectoral involvement.
WHO — States Parties Self-Assessment Annual Reporting
Methodology source for the 35 indicators, 15 capacities and annual multisectoral self-assessment process.
WHO — Amended International Health Regulations
Primary source for the 19 September 2025 entry-into-force date, pandemic emergency provisions and the 11 States Parties that rejected the amendments.
https://www.who.int/news/item/19-09-2025-amended-international-health-regulations-enter-into-force
WHO Pandemic Agreement
Primary source for the Agreement's status, PABS process, signature and ratification sequence.
WHO — PABS Annex Negotiations, July 2026
Current-status source confirming continuing negotiations and the eighth IGWG meeting scheduled for 14–18 September 2026.
WHO Disease Outbreak News — Bundibugyo Ebola Disease
28 August 2026 outbreak update for the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON616
WHO — Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface
7 August 2026 assessment covering newly reported human A(H5N1) and A(H9N2) infections.
WHO Rapid Risk Assessment — Mpox Global v.7
WHO global mpox rapid risk assessment used for this 4 September 2026 snapshot.
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/who-rapid-risk-assessment-mpox--global-v.7
WHO — 45th Polio IHR Emergency Committee
25 August 2026 source for the continuing PHEIC related to international poliovirus spread.
WHO Weekly Epidemiological Record — Multi-country Cholera Outbreak
Global cholera and acute watery diarrhoea data through 28 June 2026.
https://www.who.int/publications/journals/weekly-epidemiological-record/wer101-31
