Aging Populations: Challenges and Opportunities in Developed Countries
Why Population Ageing Is Reshaping Developed Economies
Population ageing creates four major pressures for developed economies: slower growth in the working-age population, higher old-age dependency, rising demand for health and long-term care, and the need to adapt housing, transport and local services. The same transition also creates opportunities through longer working lives, higher employment among older workers, age-inclusive infrastructure, digital care and expanding markets for products and services used by older consumers.
For a consistent quantitative benchmark, this article uses all 38 OECD member countries and ranks the official OECD projection for the share of each country's population aged 65 and over in 2050. The unit is percent of total population and the ranking direction is descending. OECD membership is used as a transparent comparison set; it is not a universal definition of a developed country.
The ranking contains 38 confirmed rows: 38 official_forecast, 0 official_value, 0 calculated_value and 0 modeled_projection. OECD reports that the average 65+ share rose to 18.5% in 2023 and is projected to reach 26.4% by 2050.
A higher position means only a larger projected 65+ population share. It is not a score for pension sustainability, health, productivity, living standards or policy performance.
Korea, official OECD forecast for 2050.
Israel, official OECD forecast for 2050.
Observed 2023 share and official 2050 projection.
38 OECD members; all 38 ranking values are official_forecast.
Four Ways Ageing Changes Economies — and Where Adaptation Can Help
Demographic structure does not determine economic outcomes on its own. Employment at older ages, productivity, migration, pension design, health, care capacity and urban policy can materially change how an ageing population affects growth and public finances.
Labour supply and longer careers
Ageing can shrink the pool of working-age adults, but employment behaviour matters. OECD Employment Outlook 2026 reports that about two-thirds of the increase in the average OECD employment rate between Q1 2024 and Q1 2026 came from higher employment among workers aged 55-64. This shows that older-worker participation can partly offset demographic pressure when people are able and willing to remain in work.
Pensions and old-age dependency
OECD Pensions at a Glance 2025 projects the number of people aged 65+ per 100 people aged 20-64 to rise from 33 in 2025 to 52 in 2050 on average across the OECD. This ratio is different from the 65+ population share used in the ranking: it focuses specifically on the relationship between older and working-age populations.
Health and long-term care capacity
Older populations increase demand for labour-intensive long-term care and integrated health services. Among the 31 OECD countries with comparable data, the average number of formal long-term care workers remained at about 5 per 100 people aged 65 and over between 2013 and 2023, despite growing care demand.
Cities, housing and the silver economy
Age-inclusive transport, accessible housing, telehealth and local services can support ageing in place. OECD research also identifies economic opportunities in the silver economy, where businesses provide healthcare, housing, mobility, leisure, technology and other products or services shaped by the needs of older consumers.
The policy problem is therefore broader than financing retirement. Countries must manage a simultaneous labour-market, care-system and infrastructure transition while making better use of the skills, purchasing power and economic participation of older adults.
OECD Benchmark: 10 Highest Projected 65+ Population Shares in 2050
The country comparison is supporting evidence for the broader ageing analysis. Five OECD members are projected to have more than one-third of their population aged 65 and over by 2050.
First 10 confirmed OECD entries by projected share of population aged 65 and over, 2050
| Rank | Entity | 2050 value | Source / method note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Korea | 40.1% | 2023 observed: 18.2%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 2 | Japan | 37.7% | 2023 observed: 29.1%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 3 | Greece | 35.5% | 2023 observed: 23.0%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 4 | Portugal | 34.0% | 2023 observed: 23.7%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 5 | Italy | 33.7% | 2023 observed: 24.0%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 6 | Lithuania | 31.0% | 2023 observed: 19.9%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 7 | Spain | 30.8% | 2023 observed: 20.0%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 8 | Slovenia | 30.3% | 2023 observed: 21.4%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 8 | Latvia | 30.3% | 2023 observed: 21.0%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
| 10 | Poland | 29.3% | 2023 observed: 19.9%. OECD Health at a Glance 2025; target 2050; published official forecast; no page-level calculation. |
The table contains 10 confirmed OECD-member rows. Equal published values share the same competition rank; no extra decimal places are invented to break ties.
Chart: First 20 OECD Entries by Projected 65+ Share
The chart uses the same raw 2050 values as the main ranking. It is included to show the distribution of demographic exposure rather than to score overall economic performance.
Methodology
The ranking metric is the projected share of the total population aged 65 and over in 2050. The controlling numeric source is OECD Health at a Glance 2025, Figure 10.1. The source publishes both observed 2023 shares and official 2050 projections.
Metric and ranking
Unit: percent of total population. Target year: 2050. Direction: descending. Ranking uses the published one-decimal values; equal values share the same competition rank.
Coverage
The ranking contains all 38 OECD member countries. OECD accession and partner economies displayed in the source figure are excluded from the member-country ranking.
Status and projection basis
All 38 ranking values are official_forecast. OECD states that the underlying projections use the most recent medium-variant UN World Population Prospects 2022 projections, complemented by national, ECLAC and Eurostat projections.
What is not calculated
The page does not extrapolate from 2023, estimate a CAGR, average conflicting sources or create a 2026/2050 model. The 2023 observed values are contextual references only.
Forecasts are not exact future outcomes. Fertility, mortality and migration may differ from the assumptions embedded in population projections. The metric also does not measure healthy life expectancy, disability, pension adequacy, employment, fiscal cost, care capacity, wealth or productivity.
Full OECD Benchmark: 38 Member Countries
The table provides the complete OECD comparison set used in this article. Search and filtering affect only display; they do not recalculate ranks or values.
OECD members ranked by official projected population share aged 65 and over, 2050
| Rank | Entity | 2050 value | Source / method note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Korea | 40.1% | 2023 observed 18.2%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 2 | Japan | 37.7% | 2023 observed 29.1%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 3 | Greece | 35.5% | 2023 observed 23.0%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 4 | Portugal | 34.0% | 2023 observed 23.7%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 5 | Italy | 33.7% | 2023 observed 24.0%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 6 | Lithuania | 31.0% | 2023 observed 19.9%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 7 | Spain | 30.8% | 2023 observed 20.0%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 8 | Slovenia | 30.3% | 2023 observed 21.4%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 8 | Latvia | 30.3% | 2023 observed 21.0%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 10 | Poland | 29.3% | 2023 observed 19.9%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 11 | Slovak Republic | 28.6% | 2023 observed 17.9%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 12 | Austria | 27.8% | 2023 observed 19.5%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 13 | Finland | 27.5% | 2023 observed 23.2%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 14 | France | 27.4% | 2023 observed 21.8%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 15 | Czechia | 27.3% | 2023 observed 20.3%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 16 | Estonia | 27.2% | 2023 observed 20.2%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 16 | Switzerland | 27.2% | 2023 observed 19.0%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 18 | Germany | 27.1% | 2023 observed 22.2%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 19 | Hungary | 26.9% | 2023 observed 20.6%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 20 | Norway | 26.3% | 2023 observed 18.3%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 21 | Ireland | 25.6% | 2023 observed 15.1%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 22 | Belgium | 25.1% | 2023 observed 19.6%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 22 | United Kingdom | 25.1% | 2023 observed 18.7%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 22 | Chile | 25.1% | 2023 observed 13.3%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 25 | Netherlands | 24.6% | 2023 observed 20.1%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 25 | Denmark | 24.6% | 2023 observed 20.4%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 27 | Sweden | 23.8% | 2023 observed 20.4%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 28 | Canada | 23.6% | 2023 observed 18.9%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 29 | New Zealand | 23.3% | 2023 observed 16.3%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 30 | Luxembourg | 22.9% | 2023 observed 14.7%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 31 | United States | 22.0% | 2023 observed 17.7%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 32 | Costa Rica | 20.7% | 2023 observed 10.5%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 33 | Türkiye | 20.1% | 2023 observed 9.9%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 34 | Iceland | 19.9% | 2023 observed 15.1%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 35 | Colombia | 19.7% | 2023 observed 10.0%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 36 | Australia | 19.1% | 2023 observed 17.1%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 37 | Mexico | 16.8% | 2023 observed 8.2%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
| 38 | Israel | 15.0% | 2023 observed 12.8%; OECD 2025; target 2050; official_forecast; published projection, no page calculation. |
Numeric ranking source: OECD Health at a Glance 2025, Figure 10.1, using OECD Health Statistics 2025 and the OECD Historical Population Data and Projections Database 2025. Accession and partner economies shown in the original OECD figure are excluded from this 38-member benchmark.
What the OECD Benchmark Shows
Key Insight
Korea moves from an observed 18.2% aged 65+ in 2023 to a projected 40.1% in 2050, placing it above Japan in the 2050 benchmark despite Japan having the older population structure in 2023.
Notable Pattern
Five OECD members — Korea, Japan, Greece, Portugal and Italy — are projected to have more than one-third of their population aged 65 and over in 2050.
Regional Concentration
East Asia occupies the first two positions, while European countries account for most of the remaining entries in the upper half of the 38-member table.
Lower End of the Range
Israel, Mexico, Australia, Colombia and Iceland are projected to remain below 20% aged 65+ in 2050, substantially below the OECD projected average of 26.4%.
What the Numbers Mean for Developed Economies
Population ageing should not be read as a direct measure of economic decline. A country can have a high 65+ population share and still sustain high employment, productivity and living standards if labour markets, retirement systems, healthcare and infrastructure adapt effectively.
The 65+ share and the old-age-to-working-age ratio also answer different questions. The ranking measures how much of the total population is aged 65 or over; the pension ratio compares people aged 65+ specifically with people aged 20-64. Neither indicator alone determines the fiscal burden because employment, earnings, pension rules, health status and productivity also matter.
Current labour-market evidence shows that adaptation is already occurring in part of the OECD. Between Q1 2024 and Q1 2026, older workers aged 55-64 accounted for about two-thirds of the increase in the average OECD employment rate. At the same time, stable long-term care staffing relative to the older population shows why care capacity remains a separate challenge even when labour-force participation improves.
For businesses and cities, ageing also changes demand. Accessible housing, mobility, healthcare, digital services and products designed for later life can support independence and create commercial opportunities, but the scale of those benefits depends on affordability, adoption and local market conditions.
FAQ
What does population ageing mean?
Population ageing means that older age groups make up a growing share of the population. It can result from lower fertility, longer life expectancy and the movement of large generations into older age groups.
Why does this article use OECD countries?
There is no single universal official list of developed countries. The quantitative benchmark therefore uses all 38 OECD members as a transparent and reproducible comparison set. OECD membership itself is not presented as a universal developed-country classification.
Which OECD country has the highest projected 65+ share in 2050?
Korea has the highest official OECD projection in this benchmark at 40.1%, followed by Japan at 37.7%.
Are these current 2026 population shares?
No. This is a September 2026 research snapshot. The ranking uses official OECD 2050 forecasts published in Health at a Glance 2025, with observed 2023 values shown for context.
Does a higher 65+ share automatically mean greater economic or fiscal stress?
No. The demographic share does not measure employment, productivity, pension design, health, care capacity or government finances. Those factors determine how strongly ageing affects an economy.
What are the main economic challenges of population ageing?
The main pressures include a smaller working-age population in many countries, higher old-age dependency, greater demand for healthcare and long-term care, and the need to adapt housing, transport and local services.
What opportunities can an ageing population create?
Opportunities include higher employment among older workers, reskilling and longer careers, accessible housing and transport, telehealth, age-friendly services and commercial growth in sectors serving older consumers.
Sources
OECD — Health at a Glance 2025: Demographic Trends
Primary numeric source for the 38-country benchmark, observed 2023 values, official 2050 forecasts, OECD average and projection methodology.
OECD — Employment Outlook 2026
Current labour-market context, including changes in employment rates for workers aged 55-64 between Q1 2024 and Q1 2026.
OECD — Pensions at a Glance 2025
Source for old-age-to-working-age population projections and pension-system demographic context.
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/pensions-at-a-glance-2025_e40274c1-en.html
OECD — Long-Term Care Workers
Source for the formal LTC workforce measure: about 5 workers per 100 people aged 65+ across 31 OECD countries with available comparable data in 2013 and 2023.
OECD — Cities for All Ages
Evidence on age-inclusive urban design, accessible housing, telehealth, older-worker reskilling and the silver economy.
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/cities-for-all-ages_f0c8fefa-en/full-report.html
OECD — Members and Partners
Current OECD membership reference confirming the 38-member comparison set used in the ranking.
