TOP 10 Countries by Home Price Growth (2025)
House price growth as a thermometer of the global cycle
Tracking year-on-year home price growth by country is one of the cleanest ways to see where residential markets are heating up, stabilising or already cooling. A house price index measures how the value of a “typical” dwelling changes over time. When we look at the percentage change over the last 12 months – especially after adjusting for inflation – we get a powerful signal about momentum in each housing market.
After an aggressive interest-rate shock in 2022–2023, the global picture in early 2025 is mixed. According to the Bank for International Settlements, global real house prices fell by about 1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with emerging markets still dragging down the aggregate while advanced economies show a modest recovery. In many countries real house prices are flat or slightly negative, even where nominal prices are still creeping up.
At the same time, a new survey of 79 national housing markets by Global Property Guide finds that real (inflation-adjusted) house prices rose in 57 countries in the year to Q1 2025 and fell in just 22. Nominal prices increased in 72 out of 79 markets. That means the average country is still seeing positive home price growth, but the strength of that growth differs sharply across regions.
Nominal vs. real growth: why inflation matters
When people say “home prices are up 20%”, they usually mean nominal growth – the change in prices before adjusting for inflation. For households and investors, the more relevant measure is real house price growth: the increase in values after stripping out consumer price inflation. In high-inflation environments, a market can show spectacular nominal gains while delivering flat or even negative real returns.
Turkey is a classic example. BIS data show that nominal house prices there have more than doubled since 2019, but once you adjust for inflation, real prices have actually fallen in the most recent year. By contrast, in several Central and Eastern European countries real house prices rose faster than inflation in 2024–2025, which is what ultimately matters for purchasing power, wealth effects and financial stability.
From global averages to outliers
Global averages can be misleading because they blend very different stories. In Q1 2025, real house prices in advanced economies rose by roughly 1–1.2% year-on-year in aggregate, led by parts of Europe, while emerging markets as a group saw declines of about –2.5% to –3%, dragged down by large corrections in places like China and Hong Kong. At the same time, a small group of countries show double-digit real price growth – sometimes above 20% – despite higher borrowing costs.
These outliers are the focus of this ranking. They are not necessarily the “best” or “safest” markets, but they are the fastest-growing in terms of real house prices. In many cases, rapid price increases are tied to strong economic growth, capital inflows or structural supply constraints. In others, they may signal overheating or speculative pressure that could later reverse.
How this ranking defines “Top 10” in 2025
To build a globally consistent picture, this article uses the Global Property Guide’s Global Residential Market Report for Q1 2025, which compiles official house price indices and adjusts them for inflation. We focus on:
- Real (inflation-adjusted) year-on-year change in mainstream residential prices to Q1 2025, in local currency.
- Nationwide indices (or best available national proxies) rather than only luxury or niche segments.
- The 10 countries with the highest real annual house price growth in that 79-country sample.
The result is a list that is deliberately tilted toward outliers: small, open economies and a few frontier and emerging markets with very rapid price appreciation. In the next section we look at the numbers and what might be driving them.
Top 10 countries by real home price growth in 2025 (Q1, YoY)
Based on inflation-adjusted data for 79 housing markets worldwide, the fastest year-on-year house price growth to Q1 2025 is concentrated in a handful of smaller economies. The figures below show real house price growth – nominal house price changes minus consumer price inflation – over the latest 12-month period.
| Rank | Country / Territory | Real house price growth (YoY, Q1 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moldova | +24.5% (inflation-adjusted) |
| 2 | Mauritius | +21.6% |
| 3 | Puerto Rico (US) | +20.4% |
| 4 | Montenegro | +19.8% |
| 5 | North Macedonia | +18.1% |
| 6 | Pakistan | +17.2% |
| 7 | Vietnam | +14.8% |
| 8 | United Arab Emirates | +13.4% |
| 9 | Portugal | +11.3% |
| 10 | Mongolia | +11.1% |
For comparison, the BIS estimates that global real house prices fell by about 1% YoY in Q1 2025, with advanced economies up only slightly and emerging markets still in aggregate decline. The countries in this Top 10 are not just above average – they are running dramatically hotter than the global housing cycle.
1–5: Eastern Europe, island states and a small Balkan economy
Moldova tops the ranking with real home prices jumping by roughly 24–25% in the year to Q1 2025. That surge reflects a mix of factors: post-pandemic catch-up after years of underinvestment, returning migrants bringing savings from abroad, and limited new supply in key urban centres. European Commission and regional think-tank analysis has already flagged double-digit real house price growth in Moldova and neighbouring countries as a potential overheating risk.
Mauritius, at second place, shows how a small island economy can become a magnet for global capital. Government incentives, residence-by-investment programmes and strong demand from international buyers have pushed real house prices up by more than 20% in a single year. Local analysts note that high-end resort and lifestyle properties are leading the charge, but mainstream housing has been pulled along by the same demand wave.
In Puerto Rico, which ranks third, real residential prices are also up by a little over 20%. Some of this reflects recovery from previous hurricanes and infrastructure shocks; some stems from tax-incentive-driven inflows of wealthy households and entrepreneurs. The island’s integration into the broader US monetary and financial system provides easy access to credit, but the rapid pace of price gains has sparked concern about affordability for long-term residents.
Montenegro and North Macedonia complete the top five with real house price growth close to 18–20%. Both are small Balkan economies with tight urban housing markets and rising demand from foreign investors and diaspora buyers. European policy reports highlight how real house prices in several Central and Eastern European countries have outpaced household borrowing capacity in recent years, underscoring the sensitivity of these markets to interest rates and macroprudential rules.
6–8: High-growth Asian markets and the Gulf
Pakistan shows real home price growth of just over 17%, despite a challenging macro backdrop. Part of this reflects inflation dynamics and currency weakness, but the inflation-adjusted data still show strong underlying demand in major cities, as households and investors seek real-asset protection against economic uncertainty. Regulatory reforms and new construction are trying to keep pace, but land and infrastructure constraints in key urban areas remain binding.
In Vietnam, real house prices are up nearly 15% year-on-year. The country’s strong GDP growth, manufacturing boom and rising urbanisation continue to feed demand for residential property. At the same time, developers are dealing with tighter funding conditions after a series of bond-market and regulatory shocks. That combination – solid demand with constrained supply – supports price growth but also raises concerns about future volatility if the credit cycle turns.
The United Arab Emirates rounds out this group with real growth above 13%. Dubai remains one of the standout global markets, benefitting from geopolitical repositioning, a wave of relocations by high-net-worth individuals and sustained demand for both prime and mid-market units. Official and industry data point to double-digit nominal growth in many segments, with inflation running well below price increases – hence the strong real gains.
9–10: Europe’s recovery and a frontier market
Portugal appears in ninth place with real home price growth a little above 11%. After a brief cooling in 2022–2023, Portugal’s housing market has re-accelerated, supported by tourism, digital-nomad inflows and relatively resilient domestic demand. European Central Bank and national central bank reports point to renewed concerns about overvaluation, especially in Lisbon and Porto, even though mortgage rates remain higher than in the pre-pandemic era.
Mongolia, in tenth place, is a classic frontier-market story: a small population, commodity-linked economic cycles and a highly concentrated urban housing market centred on Ulaanbaatar. Real house prices have risen by around 11% over the year, with strong demand for new apartments and limited high-quality supply. The country’s experience illustrates how even relatively small shifts in foreign investment, mining revenue or construction activity can produce very large swings in measured house price indices.
Outside this Top 10, a second tier of countries – including Romania, Mexico, Spain, the Netherlands and the Philippines – are also recording solid real price growth in the mid-single to high-single digits. By contrast, places like Luxembourg, Germany, China and Hong Kong have seen sizeable real house price declines over the last 12–24 months, highlighting just how uneven the current global housing cycle is.
Chart: Top 10 real house price growth vs. global trend
The bar chart below compares real house price growth in the ten fastest-growing markets with the approximate global average. All values are inflation-adjusted year-on-year changes to Q1 2025.
The gap between the blue bars and the horizontal line for the global average tells the story: while the typical country saw roughly flat to mildly negative real house price growth in the year to Q1 2025, the Top 10 recorded increases of 11–25%. These markets are therefore highly atypical in the current global context.
How to interpret very fast house price growth
- Not just “good news”: Double-digit real price growth can signal strong demand and economic confidence, but it can also indicate overheating, speculative buying or structural supply shortages.
- Affordability pressure: Where wages and household incomes are not rising at similar rates, rapid house price growth tends to erode affordability, push younger households into long-term renting and raise political pressure for housing reforms.
- Financial stability risks: Fast price increases can encourage more leverage. Regulators in several of these countries are already monitoring loan-to-value ratios, investor lending and household debt service burdens.
- Volatility potential: Markets that rise very quickly can also correct sharply if interest rates move higher again, capital inflows reverse or local policy changes reduce incentives for investment.
Using global house price indices in analysis
For cross-country comparison, the combination of BIS data, OECD housing indicators and global surveys like the one used here is powerful. BIS series are particularly useful for long-run real house price trends and for understanding how current levels compare to the period before the Global Financial Crisis. OECD data help link price indices to price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios, which are more directly tied to affordability and investment returns. Global Property Guide fills in many emerging and frontier markets where other datasets are thin.
For investors and policymakers alike, the key is not just to track where prices are rising fastest, but to ask why. Is growth driven by fundamentals such as income, demographics and productivity? Or is it a function of temporary policy incentives, financial excess or one-off capital flows? The rankings above are a starting point for that deeper analysis, not a verdict on which markets are “good” or “bad”.
Primary data sources and further reading (clickable)
- Global Property Guide – Global Residential Market Report Q1 2025 (79-country house price dataset)
- Bank for International Settlements – Residential Property Price Statistics, Q1 2025
- BIS Data Portal – Residential Property Prices by Country
- OECD – Housing Prices Indicators (real and nominal house price indices, price-to-income, price-to-rent)
- IMF – The Housing Affordability Crunch (global affordability analysis)
- European Central Bank – Economic Bulletin (sections on euro area housing markets)
- European Commission – European Economic Forecast Spring 2025 (chapters on real house prices and borrowing capacity)
- Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies – Global & US Housing Market Commentary
