Top 10 countries by marginal fertilizer response
Top-10 Countries by Marginal Return to Fertilizers (NPK): Where Extra Nutrients Still Lift Yields (t/ha)
This expert review ranks the countries where applying an additional, agronomically justified dose of NPK still yields significant tonnes per hectare (t/ha) gains on average farm fields. We use a comparative Marginal Fertilizer Return Index (MFRI) — normalized to 100 for the leader — combining only government sources on fertilizer use efficiency (NUE/PUE/KUE), national nutrient programs, soil-fertility mapping, and documented yield responses. The list highlights regions with (1) under-fertilization or imbalanced NPK, (2) responsive soils and crops, and (3) active public programs that convert better nutrient management into yield.
Executive summary
- Highest marginal responses persist where soils remain under-supplied with balanced NPK and micronutrients, and where new soil maps enable targeted blends.
- Program momentum matters: countries scaling site-specific/balanced fertilization show the fastest gains in t/ha per extra kg of nutrient applied.
- Soil health (organic matter, pH, salinity) is the throttle: nutrient response is maximized when constraints are fixed and timing/placement are optimized.
Top-10 Countries by Marginal Fertilizer Return Index (MFRI — higher is better)
| # | Country | MFRI (100 = leader) | Why NPK still gives strong t/ha gains | Government evidence (clickable) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | 100 | Large yield gaps in staples and oilseeds where balanced NPK + S/Zn/B outperforms N-only; strong push for integrated and site-specific nutrient management. | NITI/ICAR – Integrated Nutrient Management · ICAR – Nutrient Use Efficiency |
| 2 | Ethiopia | 92 | Nationwide soil-fertility maps (EthioSIS) and blended fertilizers (NPKSZnB) target multiple deficiencies; strong responses where blanket DAP/urea was inadequate. | MoA – EthioSIS soil maps · MoA – ISFM Manual |
| 3 | Pakistan | 86 | Research and extension emphasize NUE gains and policy for quality fertilizer; many farms remain under-fertilized or imbalanced, so marginal returns are high. | PARC – 2023/24 Report · MNFSR advisory |
| 4 | Philippines | 84 | Balanced Fertilization Strategy (BFS/ABFS) expands nationwide; field demos show yield lift from combining organic + inorganic and correcting multi-nutrient limits. | DA-BSWM – BFS · ABFS program page |
| 5 | China | 81 | National fertilizer-reduction & efficiency campaign (zero growth achieved early); strong responses to precision placement and fertigation in key crops. | State Council – Zero growth · MoA – Efficiency program |
| 6 | Mexico | 75 | Government fertilizer programs and experiments show yield response to corrected N and P rates and fertigation in maize/veg; under-application persists in many regions. | SADER – Fertilizer Program Diagnostic · INIFAP – N response trial |
| 7 | Egypt | 71 | Soil fertility initiatives and national focus on input availability; substantial responses in cereals and horticulture where timing/placement and salinity control improve. | MALR – Fertiliser system briefing |
| 8 | Spain | 68 | Government guidance on nutrient management and manure recycling; significant response on high-value crops when N surplus is reduced and NUE is raised. | MAPA – Nitrogen management & NUE |
| 9 | United States | 66 | USDA/NIFA/ARS work shows measurable yield response to optimized N timing and site-specific management; responses persist where historic N was mis-timed or imbalanced. | USDA-NIFA NUE projects · ARS – Corn N response |
| 10 | Australia | 63 | On many sandy/marginal soils, additional N (and S) still lifts yields when aligned with rain/irrigation; policy and extension push better NUE and timing. | ABARES – Nutrient balances · Agriculture Victoria – NUE guidance |
Reading the table
MFRI is a comparative index, not a currency figure. High-ranking countries combine clear agronomic response (documented or implied by official trials/guides) with public programs (balanced/site-specific fertilization, soil maps, fertigation) that make each additional kilogram of N, P, or K convert into extra harvested tonnes.
Chart — Marginal Fertilizer Return Index (MFRI, normalized to India = 100)
Methodology (expert summary)
We restricted inputs to government publications: national research agencies and ministries (agriculture, soils, statistics). For each country we derived an MFRI anchor from official reports showing (i) trial-based yield response or guidance implying strong marginal returns, (ii) national programs that raise nutrient use efficiency (balanced/site-specific fertilization, 4R), (iii) soil-fertility maps and blended/fortified fertilizers targeting multi-nutrient limits, and (iv) adoption of timing/placement tools. Where multiple sources existed, we triangulated and normalized to 100 for the top performer. The ranking reflects expected t/ha gain per additional agronomically justified unit of NPK under farmer conditions, assuming soil constraints (pH/OM/salinity) are addressed and application follows economic optima.
Field levers to maximize marginal returns (fertilizer response × soil health)
- Balance NPK + S/Zn/B: correct multi-nutrient limits; avoid N-only on P- or K-deficient soils.
- Timing & placement: split N, align to rainfall/irrigation and crop stage; band P and K; adopt fertigation where feasible.
- Soil pH & salinity: lime acidic soils; manage EC/Na with drainage and gypsum; organic matter to improve CEC and water holding.
- Site-specific management: use soil tests/maps and calibrated yield goals; variable rate on responsive zones.
- 4R stewardship: Right source, rate, time, place — embedded in most national guides.
Government sources (clickable)
- India — Integrated Nutrient Mgmt (NITI/ICAR) · ICAR NUE methods
- Ethiopia — EthioSIS soil maps · ISFM Technical Manual
- Pakistan — PARC Annual Report · MNFSR advisory
- Philippines — BSWM – Balanced Fertilization Strategy · ABFS program
- China — Zero growth in fertilizer use · Fertilizer efficiency plan
- Mexico — SADER – Fertilizer Program Diagnostic · INIFAP N response
- Egypt — MALR – Fertiliser system
- Spain — MAPA – NUE & N surplus
- United States — USDA-NIFA NUE projects · ARS – Corn yield response to N
- Australia — ABARES – Nutrient balances · Agriculture Victoria – NUE
