Global Oil Production in 2025: Trends, Statistics, and Insights
The global oil market in 2025 is navigating a complex landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and the ongoing energy transition. As demand growth slows and production capacity expands, the interplay between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers is driving significant shifts in the industry. This article delves into the latest trends, statistics, and projections for global oil production in 2025, offering insights for stakeholders, investors, and those exploring opportunities in energy-related portfolios.
Global Oil Production: Current State and Projections
In 2025, global liquid fuels production is forecasted to increase by 1.3 to 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d), reaching an average of 104.6 to 104.7 million b/d, according to reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). This growth follows a modest increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2024, driven primarily by non-OPEC+ countries. The United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are expected to lead this expansion, contributing a combined 1.0 million b/d to global supply in 2025.
OPEC+ production, which accounted for 47% of global crude oil output in 2024 (35.7 million b/d), is projected to grow modestly by 0.1 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026. This cautious increase reflects OPEC+’s strategy to gradually unwind voluntary production cuts, extended until March 2025, with a full phase-out planned by September 2026. However, overproduction by some members, including Kazakhstan, the UAE, and Iraq, may result in actual output exceeding targets by 680,000 b/d in some months.
Key Drivers of Oil Production in 2025
Several factors are shaping global oil production trends in 2025:
- Non-OPEC+ Growth: Non-OPEC+ countries, particularly in the Americas, are driving supply increases. The U.S. alone is forecasted to produce 13.5 million b/d in 2025, up from 13.2 million b/d in 2024, with the Permian Basin accounting for nearly 50% of this output. Canada’s production is expected to grow by 0.3 million b/d, supported by the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, while Brazil and Guyana add 0.1 and 0.2 million b/d, respectively, through new offshore projects.
- OPEC+ Strategies: OPEC+’s decision to accelerate production hikes, including a 411,000 b/d increase in June 2025, has sparked concerns about oversupply. Saudi Arabia, leading the group, is balancing market share preservation with price stability, signaling readiness to tolerate lower prices to challenge U.S. shale producers.
- Geopolitical and Economic Factors: U.S. tariffs, announced in April 2025, and retaliatory measures from trading partners have lowered global economic growth forecasts, reducing oil demand expectations by 0.5 million b/d since January 2025. Additionally, sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may constrain their output, offsetting some OPEC+ increases.
- Energy Transition Pressures: Investments in green hydrogen and electric vehicles (EVs) are curbing long-term oil demand growth, particularly in transportation. However, petrochemicals and aviation sectors continue to drive demand, with diesel and gasoline projected to reach 30.1 and 27.6 million b/d by 2045, respectively.
Oil Production Statistics: A Closer Look
The following table summarizes global crude oil production by key regions and countries for 2024 and 2025, based on EIA and IEA data:
| Region/Country | 2024 Production (million b/d) | 2025 Production (million b/d) | Change (million b/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 13.2 | 13.5 | +0.3 |
| Canada | 6.0 | 6.3 | +0.3 |
| Brazil | 3.4 | 3.5 | +0.1 |
| Guyana | 0.6 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| OPEC+ (Total) | 35.7 | 35.8 | +0.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 9.0 | 9.2 | +0.2 |
| Global Total | 102.8 | 104.6 | +1.8 |
Visualizing Oil Production Growth in 2025
The chart below illustrates the projected oil production growth for key countries and OPEC+ in 2025, highlighting the dominance of non-OPEC+ producers.
Investment Opportunities in the Oil Sector
For investors building a diversified portfolio, the oil sector in 2025 presents both opportunities and challenges. The stability of Brent crude oil prices, projected to average $66 per barrel in 2025 and $59 per barrel in 2026, reflects a well-supplied market but also limits upside potential for high-cost producers. Middle Eastern national oil companies (NOCs), such as those in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are attractive due to their low production costs and strategic alliances in logistics and technology, with over 20 partnerships formed in the past three years.
U.S. shale producers, despite facing lower oil prices, benefit from robust productivity gains. The Permian Basin, contributing 46% of U.S. crude oil production in 2024, remains a focal point for mergers and acquisitions, with nearly 40% of upstream deal value concentrated there. However, investors must consider the impact of reduced rig counts, with independent producers planning to cut capital expenditure by up to 9% in 2025.
Emerging markets like Guyana offer high-return opportunities due to rapid production growth and new offshore projects. However, geopolitical risks, including sanctions and trade tensions, necessitate careful due diligence. Engaging an immigration attorney familiar with USCIS criteria can be beneficial for investors seeking U.S. residency through energy sector investments, as the EB-5 program often aligns with large-scale oil and gas projects.
Challenges and Uncertainties
The oil market in 2025 faces several uncertainties:
- Demand Slowdown: Global oil demand growth is projected to slow to 740,000 b/d in 2025, down from 990,000 b/d in the first quarter, due to economic headwinds and record EV sales. China and India, key demand drivers, have shown weaker-than-expected delivery data.
- Inventory Build-Up: Rising production is expected to increase global oil inventories by 720,000 b/d in 2025 and 930,000 b/d in 2026, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices.
- Policy Shifts: U.S. policies under the Trump administration, including tariffs and a push for fossil fuel exploration, create a contradictory dynamic—boosting domestic supply while dampening global demand.
Regional Production Highlights
The following table provides a snapshot of crude oil production for select OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries in 2025:
| Country | 2025 Production (million b/d) | Key Developments |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 10.5 | Sanctions impacting exports; Tengiz expansion online |
| Iran | 3.2 | Tighter sanctions may reduce output |
| Norway | 2.0 | Stable production with new offshore fields |
| Argentina | 0.7 | Vaca Muerta shale driving growth |
Conclusion
Global oil production in 2025 is set to rise, driven by non-OPEC+ countries like the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, while OPEC+ cautiously increases output. However, slower demand growth, rising inventories, and geopolitical uncertainties pose challenges. For investors, the oil sector offers opportunities in low-cost producers and emerging markets, but careful navigation of risks is essential. As the energy transition accelerates, stakeholders must balance short-term gains with long-term sustainability, ensuring portfolios align with evolving market dynamics.
