Countries by Household Debt-to-GDP — 2025

How to interpret household debt-to-GDP

1) Interest-rate channel (payment shock)

• Variable-rate dominance means faster transmission from central-bank hikes to monthly payments.
• Fixed-rate systems smooth the shock, but refinancing waves can still create delayed stress.
• Debt-service vs. debt stock: two countries can have similar debt/GDP but very different payment burdens depending on rates and loan terms.

2) Mortgage structure (housing concentration)

• Household leverage is typically mortgage-led in high-debt economies; consumer credit is the smaller share.
• High loan-to-value (LTV) lending and interest-only features can raise vulnerability when prices fall.
• House-price growth can temporarily “mask” risk by increasing collateral; reversals do the opposite.

3) Consumer credit channel (non-housing stress)

• Credit cards, auto loans, and unsecured lending tend to matter most during unemployment spikes.
• Even with moderate debt/GDP, high delinquency can emerge if lending quality is weak.

Macro risks to watch in 2025

Policy takeaways

• Macroprudential tools (LTV/DTI caps, stress tests, amortization requirements) are designed to cool risk without requiring large rate moves.
• Targeted measures work best when risk is concentrated (e.g., investor loans, high-LTV first-time buyers, short-reset mortgages).
• Data transparency matters: breakdowns by mortgage vs consumer credit and by rate type improve early-warning capacity.

Comparability limitations (read before comparing countries)

• Definition differences: “households + NPISH” coverage and instrument scope can differ across reporting systems.
• Breaks and revisions: long series are adjusted for breaks, but historical comparability still depends on underlying national source changes.
• Shadow/alternative lending: some forms of credit may sit outside bank balance sheets or be underreported in certain jurisdictions.
• GDP denominator effects: nominal GDP swings can move the ratio even when debt stocks change slowly.

Primary sources (what each is used for)

How to replicate the ranking from the primary source

FAQ

Is high household debt-to-GDP always bad?

Not automatically. High ratios often reflect mature mortgage markets and high home values. Risk depends on rate structure (fixed vs variable), underwriting standards, and how resilient household income is during downturns.

Why can a country rank high even if “people aren’t struggling”?

Debt-to-GDP is a stock ratio. A high level can coexist with low default rates when incomes are stable, lending is conservative, and debt service remains manageable relative to disposable income.

Does this measure include only mortgages?

No. The BIS household credit concept covers loans and debt securities to households (and NPISH). In many high-debt economies, mortgages are the dominant component, but the total also reflects consumer credit where relevant.

Can the ratio fall even if households keep borrowing?

Yes. If nominal GDP grows faster than the outstanding debt stock (or if inflation lifts GDP), the ratio can decline even while debt rises in nominal terms.

Why do some countries have no value?

Coverage depends on official reporting and definitional alignment. If there is no BIS household (households + NPISH) observation for the snapshot quarter, the country is not shown rather than estimated.

What’s the biggest mistake when comparing countries?

Treating the number as purely “consumer debt stress.” In many economies it is primarily a housing finance number. You need context: mortgage terms, rate type, housing supply constraints, and the pace of house-price changes.

What indicator should I pair with debt-to-GDP?

Pair it with a payment metric (debt service ratio), an income shock proxy (unemployment), and a housing indicator (house-price growth). That combination explains vulnerability better than any single ratio.