Top 10 markets by growth in housing permits/starts
Cyclical indicators that lead construction activity, employment, and future inventory.
Why permits and starts matter
Building permits (units authorized) are among the cleanest forward-looking gauges of residential construction. Housing starts track ground-breakings and map more directly to near-term labor and materials demand. Historically, permits lead starts by several months; both series are seasonally adjusted to allow comparisons across time.
United States — August 2025 snapshot (SAAR): Permits 1.312 million (−3.7% m/m; −11.1% y/y); Starts 1.307 million (−8.5% m/m; −6.0% y/y). Single-family permits around 856k; 5+ units near 403k. Source: U.S. Census Bureau & HUD.
Methodology behind the Top-10
- Geography: We rank U.S. states by growth because the Census Building Permits Survey (BPS) provides monthly state-level coverage; monthly starts are available nationally and by region (state-level starts are not monthly), so starts are used for cyclical context.
- Metric: YoY change in the 12-month rolling sum of total units authorized through August 2025 (all structure types). Rolling sums smooth seasonality and reduce single-month noise.
- Data: Census BPS “Permits by State” files for authorizations; Census/HUD New Residential Construction for national/regional starts.
- Cross-checks: We sanity-check headline trends against FRED series (PERMIT and HOUST), which mirror the Census/HUD releases.
Interpretation note: A rising 12-month permit total signals expanding pipelines and likely increases in starts and completions with a lag, all else equal.
Top-10 U.S. Markets by Growth in Building Permits
(12-month rolling change through Aug-2025, Census BPS)
The list reflects migration toward the South and Mountain West, alongside relatively stronger single-family authorizations in lower-cost metros. Multifamily pipelines are normalizing from 2022–23 peaks.
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Texas
The nation’s largest permit market by volume continues to expand its single-family base on net in-migration, job creation (energy, tech, logistics), and abundant land supply across multiple MSAs.
Sun Belt magnetSingle-family depthDiverse metros -
Florida
Elevated permits in Orlando, Tampa, and South Florida. Insurance and rebuild costs are watch-items, yet inflows and services employment keep pipelines active.
In-migrationTourism & services -
North Carolina
Raleigh–Durham and Charlotte anchor growth. Advanced manufacturing investments bolster medium-term household formation.
Tech & life sciencesAffordability edge -
Georgia
Atlanta’s scale dominates the state’s authorizations. EV/battery supply chains add structural demand; multifamily moderates from cyclical highs.
Logistics hubIndustrial corridor -
Arizona
The Phoenix metro remains a high-throughput market. Multifamily issuance cooled from 2022–23 spikes, with single-family steady as affordability rebalances with wage growth.
Sun corridorPopulation growth -
South Carolina
Charleston and the Upstate (Greenville-Spartanburg) sustain healthy single-family permitting, supported by a strong industrial base.
ManufacturingPort access -
Tennessee
Nashville contributes an outsized share of authorizations; single-family shows relative resilience versus multifamily.
Music City pullIn-migration -
Utah
The Wasatch Front (Salt Lake–Provo) benefits from young household formation and diversified tech/services employment.
Young demographicsHigh formation -
Idaho
Per-capita standout with Boise as bellwether; smaller base amplifies growth rates in rolling sums.
Per-capita leader -
Colorado
Front Range stabilizes as a balanced mix of single-family and 5+ units; affordability remains the key swing factor.
Diversified demandQuality-of-life draw
Context: National starts in Aug-2025 registered 1.307M SAAR (−6.0% y/y). The South remains the majority share of both permits and starts.
How to use this ranking
- Builders & trades: Align crews and subcontractor capacity with rolling-sum leaders; watch subdivision pipeline approvals as leading signals.
- Suppliers: Focus logistics on high-growth corridors (Texas Triangle, I-4, I-85); inventory turns improve where authorizations accelerate.
- Lenders & investors: Track single-family vs. multifamily mix; debt service costs disproportionately affect 5+ issuance.
- Public sector: Time infrastructure to household formation; monitor permitting backlogs and inspection staffing.
Permits vs. Starts — National Snapshot
Comparing Aug-2025 with Aug-2024 (SAAR). Data: U.S. Census Bureau & HUD.
- Permits down y/y (−11.1%), signaling softer pipelines into early 2026 if financing stays tight.
- Starts down y/y (−6.0%), consistent with backlog work-off and targeted incentives.
- Mix: Single-family remains the anchor; 5+ units are normalizing from 2022–23 highs.
Primary Government Sources
- New Residential Construction — U.S. Census Bureau & HUD
- Latest Press Release (headline figures & tables)
- Building Permits Survey — Permits by State (monthly XLS)
- FRED: Housing Units Authorized (PERMIT)
- FRED: Housing Starts (HOUST)
- BPS Methodology (coverage, imputation, revisions)
Axis tops at 1.60M for clarity; values are SAAR. Figures: Permits 1.476M→1.312M; Starts 1.391M→1.307M (Aug-2024→Aug-2025).
