U.S. Doctor and Nurse Shortage Statistics 2026: Health Workforce Evidence Brief
U.S. Doctor and Nurse Shortage Statistics 2026: Evidence Brief
The United States faces measurable pressure in its doctor and nurse workforce, but the evidence should not be read as a single ranking. HRSA projects future full-time equivalent shortages, HRSA HPSA data show current shortage-area access pressure, and BLS data describe employment and openings in the labor market.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!This 2026 evidence brief uses federal HRSA and BLS indicators as the main table data. AAMC, AACN and NCSBN are included as context sources because they help explain physician scenario ranges, nursing education capacity and retention risk, but their figures are not mixed into the federal evidence table as equivalent rows.
Data checked: June 17, 2026. The snapshot uses HRSA workforce projections for 2023–2038, HRSA Designated HPSA Quarterly Summary for Q2 FY 2026, and BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook projections for 2024–2034. The table is an evidence table, not a Top ranking.
HRSA/NCHWA projected full-time equivalent physician shortage across all modeled specialties in 2038.
HRSA/NCHWA projected registered nurse full-time equivalent shortage in 2038.
People in primary medical Health Professional Shortage Areas in HRSA’s Q2 FY 2026 summary.
14 official_forecast rows and 5 official_value rows from HRSA and BLS.
The practical reading rule: HRSA shortage projections estimate future supply-demand gaps; HPSA data show where access is already constrained; BLS openings show job-market flow. These measures answer different questions and should not be added together.
Evidence table: federal shortage, access and labor-market indicators
The table is grouped visually by indicator type. Blue rows are HRSA shortage forecasts, orange rows are HRSA access-burden indicators, green rows are BLS labor-market indicators, and red rows show HRSA metro/nonmetro distribution pressure. Each row includes source, date, status, target year and base year where applicable.
Showing 19 evidence indicators.
U.S. doctor and nurse shortage indicators, 2026 evidence snapshot. Rows are evidence items, not ranks.
| Item | Indicator | Value | Source / date / status |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Licensed practical nurses projected shortage | 245,950 FTEs | Shortage forecastofficial_forecastHRSA/NCHWA Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. FTE means workforce capacity, not headcount. |
| S2 | Physicians projected shortage, all modeled specialties | 141,160 FTEs | Shortage forecastofficial_forecastHRSA/NCHWA Physician Workforce Projections, 2023–2038. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is the all-physician aggregate. |
| S3 | Registered nurses projected shortage | 108,960 FTEs | Shortage forecastofficial_forecastHRSA/NCHWA Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a projected supply-demand gap. |
| S4 | Primary care physicians projected shortage | 70,610 FTEs | Shortage forecastofficial_forecastHRSA/NCHWA Physician Workforce Projections, 2023–2038. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a subset of the all-physician aggregate. |
| S5 | Family medicine physicians projected shortage | 39,060 FTEs | Shortage forecastofficial_forecastHRSA/NCHWA Physician Workforce Projections, 2023–2038. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a primary-care specialty subset. |
| S6 | General internal medicine physicians projected shortage | 20,660 FTEs | Shortage forecastofficial_forecastHRSA/NCHWA Physician Workforce Projections, 2023–2038. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a primary-care specialty subset. |
| S7 | Pediatricians projected shortage | 9,320 FTEs | Shortage forecastofficial_forecastHRSA/NCHWA Physician Workforce Projections, 2023–2038. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a primary-care specialty subset. |
| S8 | Geriatricians projected shortage | 1,570 FTEs | Shortage forecastofficial_forecastHRSA/NCHWA Physician Workforce Projections, 2023–2038. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a primary-care specialty subset. |
| A1 | Primary medical HPSA designations | 8,789 | Access burdenofficial_valueHRSA Designated HPSA Quarterly Summary, Second Quarter FY 2026. Target date: as of March 31, 2026; report footer data as of 04/01/2026. Accessed: June 17, 2026. |
| A2 | Population in primary medical HPSAs | 101,733,016 | Access burdenofficial_valueHRSA Designated HPSA Quarterly Summary, Second Quarter FY 2026. Target date: as of March 31, 2026; report footer data as of 04/01/2026. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is affected population, not clinician count. |
| A3 | Practitioners needed to remove primary medical HPSA designations | 17,306 | Access burdenofficial_valueHRSA Designated HPSA Quarterly Summary, Second Quarter FY 2026. Target date: as of March 31, 2026; report footer data as of 04/01/2026. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a designation-based access measure. |
| L1 | Registered nurse jobs | 3,391,000 | Labor marketofficial_valueBLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Registered Nurses. Target year: 2024. Accessed: June 17, 2026. A larger employment base is not itself a shortage measure. |
| L2 | Registered nurse projected annual openings | 189,100 / year | Labor marketofficial_forecastBLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Registered Nurses. Projection window: 2024–2034. Base year: 2024. Accessed: June 17, 2026. Openings include growth and replacement needs. |
| L3 | Physicians and surgeons projected annual openings | 23,600 / year | Labor marketofficial_forecastBLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Physicians and Surgeons. Projection window: 2024–2034. Base year: 2024. Accessed: June 17, 2026. Openings are not unmet patient demand. |
| L4 | APRN employment growth projection | 35% | Labor marketofficial_forecastBLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Nurse Anesthetists, Nurse Midwives, and Nurse Practitioners. Projection window: 2024–2034. Base year: 2024. Accessed: June 17, 2026. |
| G1 | Projected physician shortage in nonmetro areas | 58% | Geographic distributionofficial_forecastHRSA Health Workforce Projections. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a geographic adequacy percentage, not a national FTE total. |
| G2 | Projected physician shortage in metro areas | 5% | Geographic distributionofficial_forecastHRSA Health Workforce Projections. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. Included to show the nonmetro/metro contrast. |
| G3 | Projected RN shortage in nonmetro areas | 11% | Geographic distributionofficial_forecastHRSA Health Workforce Projections. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. This is a geographic adequacy percentage. |
| G4 | Projected RN shortage in metro areas | 2% | Geographic distributionofficial_forecastHRSA Health Workforce Projections. Target year: 2038. Base year: 2023. Accessed: June 17, 2026. Included to separate geography from national shortage totals. |
Table note: sorting by value is available only as a user tool. It should not be interpreted as a cross-metric ranking because the rows use different units.
Chart: top-level HRSA projected FTE shortages
The chart compares only top-level HRSA 2038 shortage forecasts that share the same unit: projected full-time equivalent gaps. It does not place family medicine, internal medicine, pediatrics or geriatrics beside the all-physician aggregate because those physician specialty rows are nested inside broader physician categories.
Physician hierarchy note: HRSA’s 70,610 FTE primary-care physician shortage is part of the 141,160 FTE all-physician shortage. Family medicine, general internal medicine, pediatrics and geriatrics are primary-care specialty details, not separate top-level totals.
Context signals outside the federal evidence table
The federal table is the core numeric evidence base. The following sources add important interpretation, but they are kept separate because they use different source types, methods and reporting formats.
AAMC physician shortage range
AAMC projects a total U.S. physician shortage range by 2036, including a primary care range of 20,200–40,400. It is a scenario range, not one federal point estimate, so it should be read as context for physician supply risk.
AACN nursing education bottleneck
AACN reported 93,176 qualified nursing school applications not accepted in 2025. These are applications, not unique applicants, so the figure signals capacity pressure rather than a direct count of individuals excluded from nursing.
NCSBN retention-risk signal
NCSBN reported that almost 40% of nurses intend to leave the workforce by 2029, and that more than 138,000 nurses had left since 2022. Intent to leave is a survey signal, not a guaranteed exit count.
Why context matters
Workforce pressure comes from supply, training capacity and retention. A projection can show a future gap, while applications and survey signals explain why filling that gap may be difficult.
Methodology
This page uses a compiled evidence table, not a ranking. A row is included only when it has a clear source, value, unit, target year, status and interpretation note. HRSA and BLS rows are used for the federal table because they provide official workforce projections, shortage-area data or occupational projections.
HRSA workforce projections are generated through the Health Workforce Simulation Model. The model uses a base year, projects supply and demand forward, and estimates whether future workforce supply will be adequate under published assumptions. HRSA projection rows should be treated as planning estimates, not exact predictions.
HRSA defines full-time equivalent capacity as a workload measure rather than a simple headcount. This is why a projected FTE shortage is not the same thing as the number of vacancies, licenses or individuals needed. One clinician working part time contributes less than one FTE, while overtime and reduced hours can change effective capacity without changing headcount.
BLS openings are used for labor-market context. They include employment growth and replacement needs when workers transfer, retire or otherwise leave the labor force. They are not shortage counts and do not directly measure unmet patient demand.
HPSA indicators measure access burden. HRSA designates Health Professional Shortage Areas for primary care, dental care and mental health by geography, population group or facility. This page uses primary medical HPSA rows from HRSA’s Second Quarter FY 2026 Designated HPSA Quarterly Summary, shown as of March 31, 2026, with report footer data as of 04/01/2026.
Inclusion rule
The table includes federal HRSA and BLS rows with confirmed numeric values and clear status labels. Professional association and survey data appear in context sections rather than inside the main federal table.
Status definitions
official_value means a current observed federal value or designation count. official_forecast means a published federal projection or projected occupational value. No modeled_projection rows are used in this evidence table.
Rounding and display
Whole-number values are preserved as published. Summary cards may abbreviate large numbers for readability, but the full values remain visible in the table.
Limits of the evidence
The brief does not directly measure patient wait times, state-level vacancies, safe staffing ratios, wage premiums, quality of care, local scope-of-practice rules or hospital-level staffing conditions.
Insights: what the evidence shows
Key insight
The U.S. health workforce problem is multi-layered. Future HRSA shortages, current HPSA access pressure, BLS openings, education capacity and retention signals point to different parts of the same system.
Physician supply changes slowly
Physician shortages are difficult to correct quickly because medical school, residency and specialty training take many years. A projected 2038 shortage reflects long training-cycle constraints as well as future demand.
Geography changes the story
National totals can hide local access problems. HRSA’s nonmetro shortage percentages show why rural and underserved areas may face pressure even when national employment counts appear large.
Nursing pressure is both pipeline and retention
RN openings and HRSA RN shortage projections show demand for nursing capacity, while AACN and NCSBN point to bottlenecks in school capacity and experienced nurse retention.
What it means for patients, hospitals and policy
For patients
The most relevant signals are HPSA designations, affected population and geographic distribution. These indicators are closer to real access risk than national employment counts alone.
For hospitals and clinics
Hiring volume is only part of the problem. Staffing plans need to account for training output, retention, scheduling, administrative burden, rural recruitment and team-based care capacity.
For policymakers
The evidence points to multiple levers: residency capacity, rural training tracks, loan repayment, nursing faculty support, clinical placement expansion, workplace safety and retention policy.
For readers comparing numbers
A shortage projection, an HPSA population count and a BLS openings figure are not interchangeable. Each number answers a different question about workforce capacity, access or labor-market flow.
FAQ
Is there a doctor shortage in the United States in 2026?
The 2026 evidence shows current access pressure and future projected physician shortages. HRSA HPSA data identify designated primary medical shortage areas, while HRSA projects a 141,160 FTE physician shortage across all modeled specialties by 2038.
How many doctors does HRSA project the U.S. will be short by 2038?
HRSA/NCHWA projects a shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians across all modeled specialties in 2038. Within that aggregate, HRSA projects a 70,610 FTE primary care physician shortage.
Is there a nursing shortage in the U.S.?
HRSA projects a 108,960 FTE registered nurse shortage and a 245,950 FTE licensed practical nurse shortage in 2038. These are projected capacity gaps, not current job vacancy counts.
What is the difference between HRSA shortage projections and BLS openings?
HRSA shortage projections estimate whether future workforce supply will meet demand. BLS openings estimate annual job openings from growth and replacement needs. BLS openings are useful, but they do not directly quantify unmet patient demand.
What does HPSA mean?
HPSA means Health Professional Shortage Area. HRSA designates HPSAs for primary care, dental health and mental health when a geographic area, population group or facility has limited provider access.
Why is the HPSA population not the same as the number of people without care?
The HPSA population is the population inside designated shortage areas. It is an access-burden indicator, not a direct count of people who received no care or could not schedule an appointment.
Why is AAMC used as context instead of a main table row?
AAMC publishes scenario ranges for future physician shortages. A range such as 13,500–86,000 physicians by 2036 is important evidence, but it is not directly comparable to a single HRSA federal point estimate or a BLS openings figure.
Why is the nurse intent-to-leave figure treated carefully?
Intent to leave is a survey-based risk signal. It helps explain retention pressure, but it should not be treated as a precise forecast of how many nurses will actually exit the workforce by a specific date.
What data should readers watch next?
The most important updates are HRSA workforce projection revisions, HRSA HPSA designation changes, BLS occupational projections, nursing school capacity data, residency-slot policy and national nurse retention surveys.
Sources
HRSA Bureau of Health Workforce — Health Workforce Projections
Used for national workforce projection context, HRSA Health Workforce Simulation Model background and metro/nonmetro shortage distribution. Accessed June 17, 2026.
HRSA/NCHWA — Physician Workforce: Projections, 2023–2038
Used for 2038 physician FTE shortage values, including all modeled specialties, primary care and primary-care specialty detail. Accessed June 17, 2026.
HRSA/NCHWA — Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038
Used for RN and LPN projected shortages and FTE interpretation. Accessed June 17, 2026.
HRSA Data Warehouse — Designated HPSA Quarterly Summary
Used for primary medical HPSA designations, population in designated HPSAs and practitioners needed to remove designations. Q2 FY 2026 report: as of March 31, 2026; report footer data as of 04/01/2026. Accessed June 17, 2026.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Registered Nurses
Used for 2024 RN employment and 2024–2034 projected average annual RN openings. Accessed June 17, 2026.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Physicians and Surgeons
Used for projected physician and surgeon annual openings and physician labor-market context. Accessed June 17, 2026.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Nurse Anesthetists, Nurse Midwives, and Nurse Practitioners
Used for the 2024–2034 APRN employment growth projection. Accessed June 17, 2026.
AAMC — Continuing Projected Physician Shortage
Used as context for the 2036 physician shortage scenario range and primary-care shortage range. Accessed June 17, 2026.
AACN — Nursing School Enrollment and Applications
Used as context for 93,176 qualified nursing school applications not accepted in 2025 and the application-versus-applicant caveat. Accessed June 17, 2026.
NCSBN — National Nursing Workforce Study
Used as context for nurse retention risk, including nurses who left the workforce since 2022 and intent-to-leave survey findings. Accessed June 17, 2026.
