Impact of Climate Change on Migration: The Rise of Climate Refugees

by admin April 30, 2025 560 9 min read

Climate change is reshaping human mobility, driving millions to leave their homes due to environmental disruptions. In 2025, the rise of climate refugees—individuals displaced by extreme weather, rising sea levels, and resource scarcity—has become a defining global challenge. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that weather-related disasters displaced 31.8 million people in 2022 alone, a figure expected to grow as climate impacts intensify. This article explores the impact of climate change on migration, the emergence of climate refugees, and the regions most affected, supported by data, expert insights, and projections for 2025 and beyond.

Understanding Climate Change Migration

Climate change migration encompasses movements driven by sudden-onset disasters (e.g., hurricanes, floods) and slow-onset changes (e.g., droughts, sea level rise). These environmental stressors erode livelihoods, destroy infrastructure, and render regions uninhabitable. The World Bank’s 2021 Groundswell report projects that, without urgent climate action, 216 million people could become internal climate migrants by 2050 across six regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Latin America, East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. By 2030, hotspots of climate migration are expected to emerge, with 2025 marking a critical inflection point.

Key drivers of climate change migration include:

Extreme weather events: Floods, storms, and wildfires displaced 26.4 million people globally in 2023, per the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).
Sea level rise: Over 260 million people live in coastal areas at high risk, with Bangladesh facing submersion of 17% of its land by 2050.
Drought and desertification: In 2023, droughts triggered 491,000 internal displacements, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Resource scarcity: Declining crop yields and water shortages push rural populations toward urban centers or across borders.

The Rise of Climate Refugees

The term “climate refugees” refers to individuals forced to flee due to environmental degradation, though it lacks formal legal recognition under the 1951 Refugee Convention, which limits refugee status to those fleeing persecution. Despite this, the plight of climate-displaced populations is gaining attention. The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) predicts that 1.2 billion people could be displaced by 2050 due to climate-related disasters, with 2025 seeing early signs of this trend. In 2022, the UN Human Rights Council labeled climate refugees “the world’s forgotten victims,” highlighting their limited access to legal protections.

Regions most vulnerable to climate displacement include:

South Asia: Bangladesh and India face flooding and cyclones, with 20 million Bangladeshis at risk of displacement by 2050.
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Sahel region battles desertification, displacing millions due to water scarcity and food insecurity.
Latin America: Central America’s “Dry Corridor” sees migration due to droughts and hurricanes, with 1.5 million annual migrants projected at the U.S. border by 2050.
Small Island States: Pacific nations like Tuvalu face existential threats from rising seas, prompting relocation discussions.

Expert Insights and Research

McKinsey’s 2023 report on climate adaptation emphasizes that climate migration could cost economies $1 trillion annually by 2050 if unaddressed, urging investment in resilient infrastructure. PwC’s 2024 analysis highlights that climate-displaced populations strain urban systems, with 70% of climate migrants moving to cities. Bloomberg’s 2025 outlook notes that countries like Australia and Finland are exploring visa programs for climate-displaced Pacific Islanders, signaling a shift toward humanitarian migration policies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms that human-induced emissions have tripled the frequency of extreme weather since pre-industrial times, amplifying displacement.

Regional Impacts in 2025

In 2025, climate change migration is most pronounced in vulnerable regions. The following table summarizes key regions, their climate hazards, and projected displacement figures for 2050, with 2025 as a baseline for emerging trends.

Region	Primary Climate Hazard	Population at Risk (millions, 2050)	2025 Displacement (millions)
South Asia	Floods, Cyclones	89	3.2
Sub-Saharan Africa	Drought, Desertification	86	2.8
Latin America	Drought, Hurricanes	17	1.1
Small Island States	Sea Level Rise	1	0.1

Health and Social Impacts of Climate Migration

Climate refugees face significant health risks, including exposure to communicable diseases in overcrowded camps, mental health challenges from trauma, and limited access to healthcare. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) notes that migrants in poor living conditions are at risk of tuberculosis, influenza, and cholera. Women, children, and the elderly are particularly vulnerable, with 80% of climate refugees being women, per UN estimates. Socially, climate migration strains host communities, leading to resource competition and, in some cases, xenophobic backlash, as seen in Europe and the U.S.

Policy Responses and Challenges

In 2025, global responses to climate migration remain fragmented. The 2018 Global Compact on Migration calls for planned relocation and visa options for climate refugees, but implementation lags. The U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration is expanding protections for climate-displaced populations, emphasizing partnerships and multilateral engagement. However, legal barriers persist, as climate change is not grounds for refugee status under international law. Argentina’s 2022 special visa for disaster-displaced persons and Australia’s seasonal work schemes for Pacific Islanders are notable exceptions.

Challenges include:

Funding gaps: Climate adaptation funding is insufficient, with only 10% of global climate finance targeting migration-related needs.
Urban strain: Cities like San Salvador and Dhaka absorb millions of climate migrants, exacerbating housing and infrastructure challenges.
Political resistance: Anti-immigrant sentiments in host countries hinder humane migration policies.

Future Outlook for Climate Refugees

By 2030, climate migration is expected to accelerate, with Asia facing the highest exposure to hazards like heatwaves (1.3 billion people by 2090 under a high-warming scenario). The IPCC projects that concerted climate mitigation could reduce displacement by 60% by 2090. In 2025, initiatives like the Africa Climate Mobility Initiative and the Rising Nations Initiative are laying groundwork for regional cooperation. Long-term solutions require integrating climate refugees into adaptation planning, enhancing urban resilience, and reforming international legal frameworks to recognize environmental displacement.

Conclusion

The impact of climate change on migration is profound, with climate refugees emerging as a critical humanitarian issue in 2025. South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Small Island States face the greatest risks, driven by floods, droughts, and sea level rise. While economic and social challenges mount, innovative policies and global cooperation offer hope. Addressing the rise of climate refugees demands urgent action—mitigating emissions, funding adaptation, and creating legal pathways for those displaced by a warming world.