U.S. Metro Areas by FHA Mortgage Denial Rate, 2025
U.S. Metro Areas by FHA Mortgage Denial Rate, 2025
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston has the highest calculated FHA mortgage denial rate among the 20 largest FHA metro markets in this comparison, at 30.0%. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell ranks second at 27.3%, while San Antonio-New Braunfels has the lowest rate in the group at 16.3%.
The metric is the percentage of FHA applications reaching a defined credit decision that were denied. Markets are selected first by decisioned FHA application volume and then ranked by denial rate. Higher values rank higher.
The table is a compiled research dataset based on 9 cited sources, with row-level source and method notes shown in the ranking table. The observed record base is the official CFPB/FFIEC 2025 HMDA Snapshot. FinanceRateCalc v2.0.0 supplies the disclosed HECM-excluded MSA/MD aggregation used to count those official records, and StatRanker recalculates each percentage from the resulting integer counts.
Status: 20 calculated_value rows, 0 official_value, 0 official_forecast and 0 modeled_projection. The final percentages are calculations from observed 2025 HMDA records, not forecasts or agency-published metro percentages.
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston ranks first within the selected 20-market group.
San Antonio-New Braunfels is the opposite extreme within the same group.
Selected by decisioned FHA application volume before ranking by denial rate.
Observed-record calculations; no forecasts or modeled projections.
Overview: what the ranking measures
The denominator includes FHA loans originated, applications approved but not accepted, and applications denied. Withdrawals, files closed for incompleteness, purchased loans and the preapproval track do not enter the decisioned denominator.
This is an FHA-specific ranking, not an all-mortgage ranking. Conventional, VA and USDA/RHS loans are excluded. The aggregation does not separately restrict loan purpose, lien status, occupancy or property type.
Geography follows the official HMDA derived MSA/MD field. Metropolitan divisions can therefore appear separately within a larger metro region, including Dallas-Plano-Irving and Fort Worth-Arlington.
Mortgage denial and mortgage delinquency measure different stages. Denial is an application outcome before origination; serious delinquency measures payment performance after a mortgage already exists.
Top 10 FHA mortgage denial rates among the 20 largest markets
The Top 10 ranges from 30.0% in Chicago-Naperville-Evanston to 21.7% in Tampa. Rank uses the unrounded ratio calculated from the displayed denial and decisioned-application inputs.
Top 10 by calculated 2025 FHA mortgage denial rate
| Rank | Metro area / division | Denial rate | Source / Method Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 30.0% | calculated_value; official observed basis: CFPB/FFIEC HMDA 2025 Snapshot; aggregated inputs: 5,275 denied / 17,591 decisioned; source year 2025; target 2025; formula: 5,275 ÷ 17,591 × 100. |
| 2 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 27.3% | calculated_value; official observed basis: CFPB/FFIEC HMDA 2025 Snapshot; aggregated inputs: 8,351 denied / 30,568 decisioned; source year 2025; target 2025; formula: 8,351 ÷ 30,568 × 100. |
| 3 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 25.8% | calculated_value; official observed basis: CFPB/FFIEC HMDA 2025 Snapshot; aggregated inputs: 2,483 denied / 9,628 decisioned; source year 2025; target 2025; formula: 2,483 ÷ 9,628 × 100. |
| 4 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA | 24.9% | calculated_value; inputs: 2,962 denied / 11,919 decisioned; HMDA 2025; target 2025; formula: 2,962 ÷ 11,919 × 100. |
| 5 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 24.5% | calculated_value; inputs: 3,637 denied / 14,863 decisioned; HMDA 2025; target 2025; formula: 3,637 ÷ 14,863 × 100. |
| 6 | Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 23.6% | calculated_value; inputs: 2,815 denied / 11,921 decisioned; HMDA 2025; target 2025. |
| 7 | Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 23.5% | calculated_value; inputs: 2,552 denied / 10,842 decisioned; HMDA 2025; target 2025. |
| 8 | Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 23.1% | calculated_value; inputs: 2,772 denied / 12,022 decisioned; HMDA 2025; target 2025. |
| 9 | Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 21.9% | calculated_value; inputs: 2,978 denied / 13,573 decisioned; HMDA 2025; target 2025. |
| 10 | Tampa, FL | 21.7% | calculated_value; inputs: 3,389 denied / 15,624 decisioned; HMDA 2025; target 2025. |
Chart: FHA denial rates across the 20 largest metro markets
Methodology
The official observed input universe is the CFPB/FFIEC 2025 HMDA Snapshot. FFIEC lists a June 2, 2026 freeze date for the static 2025 dataset, and the public LAR schema contains the fields used here: derived MSA/MD, action taken, loan type and reverse mortgage.
Official observed inputs
CFPB/FFIEC 2025 HMDA loan-level observations provide activity year, derived MSA/MD, action_taken, loan_type and reverse_mortgage fields.
Aggregation layer
FinanceRateCalc v2.0.0 groups those observed HMDA records by MSA/MD after applying the disclosed FHA, action-taken and HECM rules.
Decisioned denominator
Action 1 = originated; action 2 = approved but not accepted; action 3 = denied.
HECM exclusion
Reverse mortgages are removed before aggregation so FHA-insured HECM applications are not mixed with the forward-mortgage universe.
Coverage rule
Markets are first sorted by decisioned FHA application count. The 20 largest are retained, then those 20 markets are ranked by raw denial rate.
Top 20 boundary
Cincinnati is the 20th included market with 9,463 decisioned applications; Jacksonville follows with 9,252.
Other filters
No additional restriction is applied to loan purpose, lien status, occupancy or property type.
Missing values
None within the 20 included markets.
Conflicting versions
Older pre-correction FinanceRateCalc figures are not averaged with v2.0.0.
Rounding
Rank uses the raw quotient from integer counts. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place for display.
FinanceRateCalc’s July 26, 2026 correction removed HECM records from its FHA processing universe. Its correction log reports that the national decisioned count changed from 1,217,297 to 1,187,606 and its calculated national FHA denial rate changed from 21.7% to 22.1%.
CFPB/FFIEC is the official source of the observed loan-level records and field definitions. FinanceRateCalc v2.0.0 is the disclosed processing layer that converts those observations into corrected MSA/MD integer counts. StatRanker calculates the ranking percentages from those counts. The metro percentages are calculated values, not values directly published by CFPB or FFIEC.
This metric does not measure an individual applicant’s probability of approval, borrower credit quality, lender profitability, delinquency, foreclosure risk or discrimination.
Main ranking: 20 largest FHA metro markets by denial rate
Showing 20 of 20 included rows.
2025 FHA denial rate among the 20 largest decisioned FHA MSA/MD markets
| Rank | Metro area / division | Denial rate | Source / Method Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL | 30.0% | calculated_value; 5,275 / 17,591; HMDA 2025 observed basis; HECM excluded. |
| 2 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 27.3% | calculated_value; 8,351 / 30,568; HMDA 2025 observed basis; HECM excluded. |
| 3 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 25.8% | calculated_value; 2,483 / 9,628; HMDA 2025 observed basis; HECM excluded. |
| 4 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA | 24.9% | calculated_value; 2,962 / 11,919; source year 2025; target 2025. |
| 5 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 24.5% | calculated_value; 3,637 / 14,863; source year 2025; target 2025. |
| 6 | Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 23.6% | 2,815 / 11,921; calculated_value. |
| 7 | Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 23.5% | 2,552 / 10,842; calculated_value. |
| 8 | Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 23.1% | 2,772 / 12,022; calculated_value. |
| 9 | Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 21.9% | 2,978 / 13,573; calculated_value. |
| 10 | Tampa, FL | 21.7% | 3,389 / 15,624; calculated_value. |
| 11 | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 21.3% | 4,424 / 20,759; calculated_value. |
| 12 | Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN | 21.2% | 2,004 / 9,463; calculated_value. |
| 13 | St. Louis, MO-IL | 20.9% | 2,188 / 10,458; calculated_value. |
| 14 | Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN | 19.3% | 2,057 / 10,673; calculated_value. |
| 15 | Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | 18.2% | 4,922 / 27,102; calculated_value. |
| 16 | Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV | 18.1% | 2,008 / 11,094; calculated_value. |
| 17 | Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 17.7% | 5,985 / 33,798; calculated_value. |
| 18 | Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX | 17.1% | 3,861 / 22,533; calculated_value. |
| 19 | Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 16.4% | 1,873 / 11,396; calculated_value. |
| 20 | San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 16.3% | 2,383 / 14,615; calculated_value. |
Insights from the ranking
Key Insight
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston leads at 30.0%, compared with 16.3% in San Antonio-New Braunfels, a 13.7 percentage-point spread.
Notable Pattern
The four Texas markets occupy the bottom four positions: Houston ranks 17th, Dallas 18th, Fort Worth 19th and San Antonio 20th.
Regional/Source Concentration
Florida contributes three Top 10 entries: Lakeland-Winter Haven, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford and Tampa.
Outlier
Chicago’s 30.0% rate is 2.7 percentage points above Atlanta’s 27.3%, the largest adjacent gap within the Top 10.
What the ranking means
A 30.0% denial rate means that roughly three in ten applications in the defined FHA decisioned universe ended in denial. It does not mean that each applicant in that metro faced a 30% individual probability of being denied.
Metro averages combine different applicants, loan amounts, purposes and lender mixes. A higher aggregate rate does not by itself prove stricter lenders, weaker borrowers or a causal effect from any single market characteristic.
The figures should not be compared directly with all-mortgage or purchase-only denial rates unless loan type, loan-purpose rules, reverse-mortgage treatment and denominator definitions are aligned.
FAQ
Which large U.S. metro has the highest 2025 FHA mortgage denial rate in this ranking?
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston ranks first at 30.0%, calculated from 5,275 denials and 17,591 decisioned FHA applications.
Are these official CFPB or FFIEC published metro percentages?
No. CFPB/FFIEC publishes the underlying 2025 HMDA observations. The metro counts are produced by the disclosed v2.0.0 aggregation, and StatRanker calculates the displayed percentages from those counts.
What counts as a decisioned FHA application?
Decisioned means HMDA action_taken 1, 2 or 3: originated, approved but not accepted, or denied.
Are withdrawn or incomplete applications included?
No. Withdrawals and files closed for incompleteness are outside the denominator. Purchased loans and the preapproval track are also excluded.
Are HECM reverse mortgages included?
No. The July 26, 2026 v2.0.0 processing specification excludes reverse-mortgage records before MSA/MD counts are calculated.
Is this a home-purchase-only ranking?
No. The aggregation retains all loan purposes and does not impose separate restrictions on lien status, occupancy or property type.
Why are only 20 metro markets shown?
The 20 largest markets by decisioned FHA application count are selected first. Cincinnati is the 20th included market with 9,463 decisioned applications; Jacksonville follows with 9,252.
Does a high denial rate prove discriminatory lending?
No. An aggregate metro rate cannot establish discrimination or explain its cause.
Sources
FFIEC Data Browser — 2025 MSA/MD
https://ffiec.cfpb.gov/data-browser/data/2025?category=msamds
FFIEC HMDA Data Browser API
FFIEC Public LAR Schema
https://ffiec.cfpb.gov/documentation/publications/loan-level-datasets/public-lar-schema
CFPB 2025 HMDA Release
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/2025-hmda-data-on-mortgage-lending-now-available/
FinanceRateCalc Corrected 2025 FHA Metro Dataset
FinanceRateCalc Dataset v2.0.0 Archive
Related StatRanker context
FHA Serious Delinquency Rates
https://statranker.org/economy/ginnie-mae-fha-serious-delinquency-rates-december-2025/
U.S. Metro Areas by Population
U.S. States by Home Price-to-Income Ratio
